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Home Fact-Check 2023 Elections: Economic Confidential Exposes Facts, Faces Behind Pre-election Polls
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2023 Elections: Economic Confidential Exposes Facts, Faces Behind Pre-election Polls

By
Prnigeria
-
February 19, 2023
Zeenat Sambo of Economic Confidential at the Press Conference
Zeenat Sambo of Economic Confidential at the Press Conference

2023 Elections: Economic Confidential Exposes Facts, Faces Behind Pre-election Polls
… Urges Stakeholders to eschew divisive content, fake news and hate speech

Abdulrahman Abdulraheem, Managing Editor of Economic Confidential at the Conference
Abdulrahman Abdulraheem, Managing Editor of Economic Confidential at the Conference

Barely a week to the all-important presidential election in Nigeria, Economic Confidential has undertaken a robust fact-checking exercise to expose the process and people behind most of the pre-election polls that have predicted that certain candidates would win the election.

Since the 18 political parties on the ballot concluded their respective primaries and chose their presidential candidates last year, a lot of polls have been conducted by different organisations most of which made bold calls about the likely winners of the election.

Economic Confidential has, however, found out that some of the polls were conducted by organisations whose owners are linked to the same candidates they touted would win the presidential election.

Journalists at Economic Confidential and Fact-Check Team Press Conference
Journalists at Economic Confidential and Fact-Check Team Press Conference

According to Economic Confidential quartet of Abdulrahman Abdulraheem, Mohammed Dahiru Lawal, Rahma Oladosu and Zeenat Sambo who addressed a world press conference at PRNigeria Centre in Abuja on Sunday, some of the polls have made big calls which are capable of causing violence if certain expectations are not met by the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Some of the polls predicted the Labour Party LP candidate, Peter Obi, as winner; some projected his All Progressives Congress (APC) counterpart, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while some chose the flagbearer of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar.

They also found out that some of the polls were conducted without deploying the fundamental scientific factors like methodology, sample sizes, and proper geographical spread.

Economic Confidential and Fact-Check Team at the Press Conference at PRNigeria Centre
Economic Confidential and Fact-Check Team at the Press Conference at PRNigeria Centre

PRNigeria, a sister publication of Economic Confidential, had addressed a similar press conference last week where they drew the attention of security agencies, the media and the country at large to the pitfalls they noticed “in these pre-election days which can pose a threat to the country’s stability during and after the polls.”

“One of the pitfalls we observed was the proliferation of unscientific, unverifiable and (sometimes) partisan pre-election polls conducted by different organisations and private groups which seemed to make certain candidates and their supporters over-excited ahead of the polls,” Abdulraheem stated.

Emma Ujah of Vanguard Newspaper at the Conference
Emma Ujah of Vanguard Newspaper at the Conference

“What these calls do to the psyche of supporters is that they make them close their minds to the possibility of their candidates not winning the elections and if this happens, they are likely to suspect foul play and resort to violence along the same ethnoreligious lines that we have already noticed,” he added.

According to Sambo, one of the pollsters, Nextier, which called that Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) would win the election, is owned by a man who is linked to Obi.

“The founder of Nextier, Patrick Okigbo, hails from the same Anambra state with the candidate touted to win in the polls. He also graduated from the same University of Nigeria Nsukka as the candidate. In July 2020, the candidate hailed Okigbo over an international award.

Yushau Shuaib of Image Merchant Promotion Limited introducing the presenters
Yushau Shuaib of Image Merchant Promotion Limited introducing the presenters

“Nextier is also a profit-oriented organisation as it clearly states on the front page of its website: ‘We work with our clients to develop plans, frameworks and roadmaps to realise their economic and social goals,” Sambo noted.

The ANAP Foundation in two separate polls had also called the election in favour of Obi. But Sambo said according to Economic Confidential fact-checks, Mr Atedo Peterside, who owns ANAP Foundation, is a politician and close ally of the Labour Party candidate.

According to her, the digital footprints of Peterside exposed his relationship with Obi.

Premise Data was another group that conducted a poll that was widely reported to have been conducted by Bloomberg and projected Obi as the likely winner of the election.

Sambo said according to Economic Confidential fact-checks on the site of Bloomberg, the poll was not conducted by it as the news story saying ‘Bloomberg projects obi to win Nigeria’s presidential election’ was not found on the site.

She therefore told journalists that Premise Data only used the credibility of Bloomberg to give leverage to their poll.

“We also discovered that Premise Data, which had never done any poll before, had the same ownership details with another group, Redfield and Wilton, that did a similar poll and also projected that the same candidate would emerge,” she said.

As for the Nigerian Human Rights Community (NHRC) poll that projected Bola Tinubu to win the election, Sambo said the group was not forthcoming with the methodology that was deployed to arrive at the conclusion, adding that there were also mathematical inaccuracies in their report which cast a doubt on their credibility.

For the June Group Research and Council for African Security Affairs (CASA), which called the election in favour of Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Sambo said the group did not show the methodology deployed and the research they presented to the public was not data-based.

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The highlight of the press conference was the visual presentation of how the fact-checks were done by Lawal, who heads the fact-checking and investigation desk at PRNigeria.

Economic Confidential and Fact-Check Team at the Press Conference
Economic Confidential and Fact-Check Team at the Press Conference

Oladosu, on her part, presented Economic Confidential’s recommendations to the journalists, saying pollsters should eschew partisanship and stick to the fundamental science of survey, research, and polling if they must conduct pre-election polls.

She added that Nigerians must lower their expectations and go to the elections with an open mind, vote and be ready to accept the results announced by INEC even if it is in contrary to what the aforementioned polls had told them.

Economic Confidential also called on stakeholders to eschew fake news, hate speech, and divisive media content that can expose the country to danger during and after the polls.

Meanwhile, last week, PRNigeria, a sister publication of Economic Confidential, at a similar press conference listed potential security threats that could affect the elections if proactive measures were not taken by security service.

Economic Confidential and Fact-Check Team at the Press Conference at PRNigeria
Economic Confidential and Fact-Check Team at the Press Conference at PRNigeria

The 30-page PRNigeria report titled: “2023 Election: SWOT Analysis of Major Presidential Candidates and Security Matters” was produced with support from the Wole Soyinka Centre for Investigative Journalism (WSCIJ), under the Collaborative Media Engagement for Development Inclusivity and Accountability Project (CMEDIA), and funded by the MacArthur Foundation.

By PRNigeria

SIMILAR FACT-CHECK BY PRNIGERIA ON POLITICS

FACT-CHECK: Did Sultan of Sokoto Endorse Peter Obi?
FACT-CHECK: Court Upheld PRNigeria’s fact findings on El-Rufai’s Misleading Detention Allegation against Peter Obi
Fact-check: Did Peter Obi Arrest and Detain El-Rufai In 2013 In Anambra?
FACT-CHECK: Was Saraki’s Son, Seni, Caught on Video Spraying US Dollars on Strip Girl?
FACT-CHECK: Did Borno Lawmaker Threaten to Kill, Bury Political Opponents?
Fact-Check: Did Political Thugs Injure 74 PDP Supporters and Vandalize 100 vehicles in Maiduguri at Atiku’s Campaign Rally?
Fact-Check (1): Did London Police Arrest Osinbajo’s Relations, Nigerian Student over Money Laundering?
Fact-check on Tinubu’s BBC Interview: Did Foreign Jihadists Control 17 LGAs and 4 States Before Buhari’s Presidency?
Fact-Check: Is INEC Investigating Tinubu Over US Court Document on Drug Trafficking Allegations?
Fact-Check: Did US Court Convict Tinubu over Drug Dealings?
FACT-CHECK: Did Ihedioha Write a Letter Advising Malami Not to Release Nnamdi Kanu of IPOB?
FACT-CHECK: Is Atiku the Owner of Tiger Skyscraper Estate in Dubai?
FACT-CHECK: Did Peter Obi Eject Northerners from Markets in Anambra?
FACT-CHECK: Did Kashim Shettima Have Breakfast With Armed Bandits in Borno State?
FACT-CHECK: Is it true that Kwankwaso didn’t construct road in Igbo dominated Sabon Gari area of Kano when he was the governor?
FACT-CHECK: Did Peter Obi Agree to Back Atiku for Presidential Poll as Shared by Festus Keyamo on Twitter?
FACT-CHECK: Is APC Planning to Spend N6 Trillion to Rig 2023 Elections?
FACT-CHECK: Is Atiku the Owner of Tiger Skyscraper Estate in Dubai?
FACT-CHECK: Did CNN Broadcaster, Brianna Keilar, Name Her Son Peter Obi?
FACT-CHECK: Did Shettima-Amosun Discuss Biafran Agitation and how Hausa-Yoruba Can outsmart Igbo Dominance in a Leaked Audio?
Fact-Check: Did the Cable Publisher, Simon Kolawole, Attack Peter Obi for “Democratisation of Poverty” in Anambra?
FACT-CHECK: Is Atiku Abubakar Giving Out N10,000 Presidential Campaign Freebies?
FACT CHECK: Is it true that Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Olusola Obada Governed Osun State  2003-2010 on a Christian/Christian Ticket?
FACT-CHECK: Is it true that between 2010- 2018, Ekiti State Ran on a Christian – Christian ticket?

 

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