ANALYSIS: Wike, Tinubu and the Script Behind Fubara’s Return
By Kabir Akintayo,
The drama of Rivers State politics is far from over. Governor Siminalayi Fubara may have returned to office after six months of suspension, but his comeback is no triumph of a leader who has conquered his battles.
It feels instead like the quiet re-entry of a man bound by fragile deals, uneasy peace, and unfinished struggles for power. His ordeal began with a crisis that shook the very foundation of governance in the state.
His suspension, the declaration of emergency rule by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in March, and the carefully managed peace accord that enabled his return all point to a larger political script in which Fubara is more of a character than an author.
His return offers momentary relief, but beneath the surface, governance in Rivers remains shackled.
The Hidden Peace Deal
The peace that restored Fubara was not born of reconciliation at the grassroots or the intervention of his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It was the outcome of an arrangement brokered at the presidency and enforced by his estranged godfather, Nyesom Wike, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory.
In his statewide broadcast upon resuming office, Fubara acknowledged this openly. He praised Tinubu as the architect of peace and commended Wike for allowing calm to return. Yet, strikingly, he made no mention of the PDP or its governors.
His silence was a confession that the party abandoned him in his darkest hour, leaving him to the mercy of outside power brokers. That silence raises unsettling questions. If his survival depends on Tinubu and Wike, how much independence does he retain?
And if the PDP offered him no shield, what loyalty does he still owe the party that gave him a platform?
The Local Government Elections
The recent local government elections conducted during Fubara’s absence deepened his political vulnerability. Under the supervision of sole administrator Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas, a retired Chief of Naval Staff, the elections delivered a shocking result: the All Progressives Congress (APC) claimed 20 out of 23 councils, leaving the PDP with just three.
For a sitting governor, this was nothing short of devastating. Local councils are the grassroots machinery of politics in Nigeria, the lifeline of governors who depend on them for survival and dominance.
With Rivers’ councils now in APC’s grip, Fubara is politically stripped in his own state. The results reveal two realities. First, they underline Wike’s enduring influence, for APC’s sweep cannot be divorced from his tacit support.
Second, they expose Fubara’s helplessness. Without grassroots control, his survival in the next political battle looks increasingly precarious.
Wike’s Assembly
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If the councils weakened him from below, the Rivers State House of Assembly keeps him in chains from above. The legislature is dominated by Wike’s loyalists, and unlike most governors in Nigeria who bend assemblies to their will, Fubara faces a parliament that resists him and openly asserts his subordinate status.
With such a legislature, passing laws, confirming appointments, or pushing any agenda will require endless negotiations, each reminding him of the unseen hand pulling his strings.
Beyond the Assembly and the grassroots, Fubara’s challenges deepen.
First is executive independence. Nigerian governors are accustomed to near-monarchical authority, controlling resources and brooking no opposition.
But Fubara has been forced into a position where he is expected to act more as a sheep than a lion. The question is how long such restraint can last before rebellion brews.
Second is loyalty within the PDP. Having seen his party abandon him, Fubara may find little incentive to rebuild its structure in the state. His instincts for survival may drive him toward an alliance with the APC, where both Tinubu and Wike now hold sway.
Third is the matter of perception. By praising Tinubu and Wike while ignoring the PDP, Fubara has created the impression of shifting loyalty. That alone weakens whatever confidence the party still has in him, further loosening his grip on its machinery.
The APC Temptation
This leads to the question that now hangs over Rivers politics: will Fubara decamp to the APC? His body language suggests the possibility. Doing so would give him national cover and Wike’s blessing, shielding him from future onslaughts.
But the risks are heavy. Crossing over would mean conceding total dominance to Wike, who already controls the APC structure in Rivers. It would also alienate PDP remnants still loyal to him. Even more, it may not guarantee him a second-term ticket, since APC’s power brokers may not wish to surrender the governorship to a latecomer.
Interestingly, when asked on Channels Television what he would do if Fubara defected, Wike dismissed it as unremarkable, even encouraging it. His nonchalance seems strategic—after all, with or without Fubara, Wike’s grip on Rivers under the APC umbrella appears secure.
The Shackled Governor
Fubara’s return to Government House is no end to Rivers’ political storm. It marks instead the beginning of a more complicated phase where peace is maintained not by trust but by fragile compromises.
The peace deal that brought him back has left him indebted to Tinubu and Wike, while the PDP stands discredited in his eyes. The local government elections have robbed him of grassroots power, and the Assembly keeps him under restraint.
The real test of his future lies not in whether he can govern the remainder of this term but in whether he can survive beyond it. Will he defect to the APC in search of survival, or fight to reclaim the PDP in Rivers? Time will tell, but for now, governance in the state remains firmly in chains.
Kabir Akintayo, a political analyst, writes from Abuja. He can be reached at: [email protected].
