Fragile Peace Deals with Bandits: A Gamble for Survival
By MUKHTAR Ya’u Madobi
In many communities across northwestern Nigeria, especially Katsina and Zamfara states, weary residents long tormented by years of violent banditry are embracing an unusual and controversial strategy: signing peace agreements with the very criminals who once terrorised them.
Reports indicate that in no fewer than ten local government areas of Katsina — Batsari, Kankara, Kurfi, Musawa, Danmusa, Sabuwa, Dandume, Matazu, Jibia, and Faskari — locals have struck fragile pacts with armed groups. For them, this desperate gamble is less about legitimising crime than about snatching a brief moment of peace after years of kidnappings, killings, and destruction that shattered their lives.
Critics of these peace deals often dismiss them as glaring evidence of state failure, but the reality is far more complex. Such agreements do not necessarily mean the collapse of Nigeria’s security system; rather, they highlight the limits of relying on military solutions alone and the urgent need to complement force with soft approaches that address root causes.
For more than a decade, the Nigerian state has launched numerous military operations across the northwest, deploying thousands of troops, establishing forward operating bases, and conducting airstrikes. Yet insecurity persists. Weak institutions, political interference, the complicity of local elites, harsh terrain, and the ever-changing tactics of criminal gangs have all blunted the impact of kinetic operations.
It is no wonder that policymakers and security experts increasingly agree that firepower alone cannot silence banditry. Even some bandit commanders echo this sentiment. At a recent peace signing in Matazu, Katsina, Kachalla Ummaru warned that government reliance on force merely fuels recruitment. “If today you kill 10 bandits, tomorrow you’ll see 20. You kill 20, another 30 will rise both in our bushes and villages,” he said, accusing authorities of prioritising revenue collection over citizens’ welfare.
The results of these fragile peace deals vary across states, producing moments of relief alongside bitter betrayals. In Faskari, Katsina, a notorious bandit leader, Isya Akwashi Garwa, released 28 abductees without ransom — a rare gesture of reconciliation that briefly restored confidence among locals. But in Zamfara, violence has continued despite peace talks. The abduction of 40 worshippers in Gidan Turbe, Tsafe, and the brutal killing of the District Head of Dogon Dawa by Ado Allero’s gang show how easily these agreements can collapse. For many, these incidents confirm suspicions that some bandits only use dialogue as cover to regroup, rearm, and strike again.
A glaring weakness is the failure to enforce disarmament. Many bandits retain their weapons, claiming they need them for self-defence against rival groups. This loophole reduces peace deals to mere pauses in violence rather than genuine solutions, creating fragile truces that collapse at the first provocation.
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For ordinary villagers, however, even temporary relief matters. After years of sleeping in fear, abandoning farmlands, and losing loved ones, a fragile truce can mean the chance to harvest crops, send children to school, or attend Friday prayers without constant dread. Many rural communities have lost faith in distant government promises. Their embrace of localised agreements is therefore as much a survival tactic as it is a pragmatic acknowledgment of the state’s limitations. To dismiss these efforts as cowardice or complicity is to overlook the human desperation driving them.
If peace agreements are to stand any chance of lasting, Nigeria’s security institutions must take centre stage. The Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), the Department of State Services (DSS), the military, and the police should jointly oversee monitoring, disarmament, and rehabilitation. Leaving these critical responsibilities solely to state and local governments or traditional leaders risks institutionalising weak and inconsistent arrangements.
Just as crucial is the need to provide repentant fighters with real alternatives to violence. Without vocational training, education, and sustainable economic opportunities, even those who genuinely want peace may relapse into banditry. Reintegration must go beyond token handouts to meaningful empowerment that restores dignity and creates incentives to stay away from crime.
Beyond disarmament and rehabilitation, Nigeria must also tackle the structural drivers of banditry. Widespread poverty, youth unemployment, weak governance, and limited access to justice all feed the crisis. In many rural areas, state presence is almost nonexistent, leaving bandits to fill the vacuum by providing “protection” or enforcing their own rules. Unless these underlying issues are addressed, peace deals will remain short-lived. Communities will continue to oscillate between fragile truces and violent reprisals. Building roads, schools, clinics, and agricultural support systems is as critical as deploying soldiers. Development, not just deterrence, is the real antidote to insecurity.
True peace in the northwest will not come from appeasement or military might alone. It will require a balanced strategy that integrates those willing to repent while deploying decisive state power against those who remain unrepentant. Amnesty cannot be blanket; it must be conditional and accompanied by accountability.
The federal government must also ensure coordination between state-level initiatives and national security agencies. Fragmented approaches only embolden bandits who exploit divisions between authorities. A unified framework, anchored in law and backed by strong political will, is essential.
For the people of Katsina, Zamfara, and other troubled states, the dream is simple yet profound: to live in dignity, free from fear, and reclaim their communities from the grip of terror. Fragile peace deals may buy time, but they are no substitute for a comprehensive strategy that combines force, dialogue, development, and justice. Only then can the northwest break free from the endless cycle of violence and chart a path toward lasting stability.
MUKHTAR Ya’u Madobi is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Crisis Communication. He writes via [email protected]
