2027: Beyond Certificates and Other Rehashed Nothingness, Nigerians Deserve an Issue-based Campaign
By Kabir Akintayo
Nigeria is once again approaching that familiar political season when presidential campaigns risk becoming less about the future and more about the past. Instead of asking who can fix the economy, secure the country, create jobs or keep the lights on, political actors may once again spend precious months arguing over certificates, academic records, old court cases and controversies that have already dominated previous elections, that would be a disservice to Nigerians.
The 2027 presidential election should be different. It should be an election of ideas, records, policies and measurable commitments. Candidates should be compelled to tell Nigerians not only what they have done, but what they intend to do differently.
The campaign season formally got underway in August, with major political parties and presidential candidates beginning to activate their campaign structures. The All Progressives Congress (APC), which is seeking President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election, unveiled a 2027 Presidential Campaign Council with 223 members. The list generated controversy, particularly over the inclusion of serving public officials, including officials occupying sensitive government positions. Even though the list, according to reports was withdrawn for further review, but that controversy, important as it may be for questions about conflict of interest and the use of public office, should not define the presidential contest.
More importantly, the opposition must resist the temptation to allow the campaign to become another certificate war.
For example, Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), while declaring his campaign kick-off on Friday, said that Nigerians should take advantage of the campaign period to examine each candidate’s academic records and proposals and ask “tough questions.”
The certificate controversy was already one of the dominant issues of the 2023 election. Yet President Tinubu emerged from that election and subsequently assumed office. Whatever one’s opinion about the controversy, reopening the same argument four years later without connecting it to a broader assessment of governance risks turning the 2027 election into a referendum on old controversies rather than a contest over Nigeria’s future.
INEC has also published the personal particulars and academic credentials submitted by presidential candidates in accordance with the electoral framework.
The real question now should therefore be: What will each candidate do with the enormous powers of the Nigerian presidency? That is where the opposition should concentrate its fire.
Subsidy removal: Follow the money
Few issues offer a better opportunity for an issue-based campaign than the removal of petrol subsidy.
The government has consistently defended the policy as necessary to save resources and prevent the country from sinking deeper into fiscal crisis. The latest government figures provide opposition parties with an opportunity to ask legitimate and uncomfortable questions.
Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, recently disclosed that reforms involving subsidy removal and foreign-exchange liberalisation generated an estimated ₦15.8 trillion in resources for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025.
The Federal Government received about ₦5.43 trillion, states ₦6.52 trillion and local governments ₦3.88 trillion. Oyedele also said the Federal Government generated about ₦20.4 trillion in incremental resources when other revenues and borrowing were included, while additional expenditure reached approximately ₦30.64 trillion.
This is precisely where an intelligent opposition campaign should begin.
Where did the money go?
What measurable improvements have Nigerians received in return for the enormous sacrifice imposed by subsidy removal?
How much was spent on infrastructure, social intervention, transportation, healthcare, education and poverty reduction?
What independent mechanism can verify the government’s figures?
Rather than simply declaring subsidy removal a failure, the opposition should demand an independent audit of the savings, allocations and expenditure. It should present its own alternative: If subsidy is not returning, what replaces it? If it should return, how will the government finance it without recreating the fiscal problems that led to its removal?
Electricity should become an election test
Electricity is another area where the 2027 campaign can become a genuine accountability contest.
The administration inherited a deeply troubled power sector and has implemented reforms, including the Electricity Act and measures aimed at strengthening the national grid. The Federal Government itself acknowledged in June that the sector had suffered from generation shortages, unreliable gas supply, fragile transmission infrastructure and significant legacy debts.
But Nigerians are ultimately interested in one thing: Does electricity work?
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The President made electricity a major part of his 2023 political pitch, including a pledge that Nigerians should hold him accountable if he failed to deliver on his promise. The Presidency has since argued that the promise was misrepresented and has pointed to reforms in the sector.
That disagreement should not be settled by propaganda, but figures.
How many hours of electricity does the average Nigerian receive today compared with 2023? What is the actual generation capacity? How much electricity is lost in transmission and distribution? What is the metering gap? What has been done with the billions allocated to the sector? What is the roadmap to reliable electricity?
The opposition should put those questions before Nigerians and offer a credible alternative.
Cost of living is bigger than certificates
For millions of Nigerians, the most important political issue is not whether a politician attended a particular school. It is whether they can afford food.
The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 assessment that conditions remained difficult for many Nigerians, with poverty estimated at 63 per cent and about 27 million people estimated to have experienced food insecurity in late 2025. It also warned that higher fuel and food prices could worsen the situation.
This gives presidential candidates a wide policy field.
They should be debating how to reduce food prices without destroying farmers’ incentives; how to improve agricultural productivity; how to reduce transportation costs; how to make the naira more stable; how to create productive employment; and how to protect poor Nigerians while pursuing economic reforms.
The question should not simply be, “What certificate do you have?”
It should be: “What is your economic plan, how much will it cost, and how will you pay for it?”
Security cannot be pushed to the background
Security should arguably be the biggest issue of the 2027 election.
Recent mass kidnappings and continuing attacks have demonstrated that insecurity remains a serious national challenge. The latest incidents in Niger State, including a major mass abduction reported on Monday, have again raised questions about the ability of the state to protect vulnerable communities.
Every presidential candidate should therefore be required to present a detailed security doctrine.
How will the next government defeat banditry? What happens to ransom payments? How will intelligence gathering be improved? What is the strategy for securing rural communities, schools, highways and farms? How will security agencies be better equipped without creating avenues for corruption?
And perhaps most importantly, what institutional reforms will ensure that security policy survives changes in government?
These questions deserve more campaign airtime than scandals from decades ago.
Debt, taxation and public accountability
Nigeria’s rising fiscal pressures also demand serious debate.
The next president will inherit an economy where debt servicing, revenue mobilisation and infrastructure spending must be carefully balanced. The IMF has warned about limited fiscal space, high interest-to-revenue pressures and the need to strengthen budget processes, fiscal reporting, transparency and accountability.
Candidates should therefore publish their position on taxation, borrowing and public expenditure.
Will they borrow more? At what interest rate? For what projects? What happens when revenue falls short? Will they publish a comprehensive register of government borrowing and major projects? How will they reduce leakages?
The recently introduced tax reforms also deserve serious debate. Candidates should tell Nigerians whether they support them, which aspects they would retain, which they would amend and how their preferred tax system would protect businesses and low-income households.
A credible opposition candidate should be able to say: This is what the government did; this is where it failed; this is what we would change; this is what it would cost; and this is how Nigerians would benefit. That is what presidential politics should look like.
For example, opposition candidates should be able to tell Nigerians about a policy like NELFUND. Is it a good policy, will you scrap it, review it or expand it? How about the Petroleum Industry Act which has deregulated the downstream sector of the petroleum industry? The candidate who has promised to return fuel subsidy immediately after swearing-in must tell Nigerians how he intends to do that without amending the PIA. He has to tell voters whether he plans to convince the National Assembly to amend the law or he wants to run a lawless administration.
And when the campaign ends, voters should be able to choose not simply the candidate with the most damaging allegation against an opponent, but the candidate with the most convincing plan for making Nigeria work.
Kabir Akintayo is a journalist and a public affairs analyst. He writes from Abuja, and can be reached at [email protected]
