Biden’s hand, Tinubu’s voice

Biden’s hand, Tinubu’s voice

By Ahmed Yahaya-Joe

Recently, the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee brightened the mood in the Villa with an auspicious message to its current chief tenant, “President Biden is asking to meet with you on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), and you are the only African leader he has requested to meet.”
The lady fluent in Arabic, French and Italian who had previous served as deputy Head of US Mission in Ethiopia and Ambassador to South Sudan was in Abuja to summon the Nigerian leader using diplomatic language usually obfuscated as extending an invitation.
I find the September 15 deadline for the judicial ruling of the February 25 presidential election coincidental to the timing of the 2023 UNGA, September 18-26 because, “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.” – Franklin Delano Roosevelt, US President 1939-1945

I have endeavoured read and re-read Ms. Phee’s message to President Tinubu as reported by his loquacious megaphone, Ajuri Obari Ngelale.
It reminds me of how the outgone British High Commissioner to Nigeria, Catriona Laing described the February 25 presidential election;
“Nigeria’s politics is just so fascinating. Though there were disappointments in the last election, overall, every Nigerian should be proud.”
My take is that she spoke on behalf of London admonishing Nigerians to just politically move on by planning for the next election .
Career diplomats are meticulously trained to be sleek. For instance, when they politely say to you, “With the greatest respect….,” be advised they actually mean, “You’re an idiot.”
Another example is when they comment: “Very interesting,” they mean to say, “This is complete nonsense.” And when they comment, “I’m sure it’s my fault,” it is just their way of saying, “It’s your fault.”
Little wonder, Caskie Stinnett puts it that, “A diplomat is a person who can tell you to go to hell in such a way that you actually look forward to the trip.”

Every picture tells a story.
The attached one here is no different. Taken in the United States on July 21, 2015. It was during a “working lunch” between a finely dressed visiting Nigerian delegation and their American counterparts warmly hosted by John Forbes Kerry, then US Secretary of State in Washington DC.
What was discussed?
This question is pertinent because there was no Federal Executive Council in place when the event took place.
While, Milton Friedman, the 1976 Nobel Laureate in Economics for his research on Consumption Analysis warns, “There is no such thing as free lunch,” the visitors need no elaborate introduction here.
Rotimi Ameachi is at the far end of the table with folded arms. Meanwhile, in the foreground is then Senate President, Bukola Saraki – but why is he the only one in the room with elbows resting on the table?
According to table etiquette, “It’s generally advised to keep your elbows off the table, although resting your forearms on the table is usually acceptable. If you must rest your elbows on the table, do it only between courses, when there is not a plate in front of you.”
Anyway, Adams Oshiomhole is squeezed in next to the bulk of Owelle Rochas Okorocha. Down the table are Malam Ismaila Isa Funtua and Alhaji Abiola Ajimobi, now both of blessed memory. In overall context the Nigerian side of the table is characterized by gender insensitivity. Gross.

According to Tom Clancy in, The Hunt for Red October, “The three most powerful people in the world are the President of the United States, the President of the Russian Federation and the Captain of a nuclear submarine.”
So, what choice does any Nigerian leader have when politely summoned by the White House?
It is akin to Don Vito Corleone in Mario Puzo’s, The Godfather “making you an offer you can’t refuse” particularly when you have pending legal troubles complicated by the meddlesomeness of a diaspora sponsored, “All Eyes on the Judiciary”.

Now, back to our title paradox adapted from the ancient Hebrew narrative of “Jacob’s voice but the hands of Esau” which has been used for centuries to aptly describe the triangulation of chicanery, subterfuge and deception.
In neighbouring Niger Republic, the American hand must be disguised by Nigeria’s voice in ECOWAS.
While the Villa desperately needs an international political distraction away from its “teething problems”, the White House urgently seeks a reliable and enthusiastic proxy in the Sahel region;
“The Monkey grabs the paw of his friend, the Cat, and uses it to fish chestnuts out of the fire, thus getting the nuts he craves, without hurting himself.
If there is something unpleasant or unpopular that needs to be done, it is far too risky for you to do the work yourself. You need a cat’s-paw – someone who does the dirty, dangerous work for you.
The cat’s-paw grabs what you need, hurts who you need hurt, and keeps people from noticing you are the one responsible.” – 48 Laws of Power p. 206

Therefore, one does not need to be a political clairvoyant to discern that President Tinubu must have seized the opportunity of Madam Phee’s visit to impress upon her how American interests in Niger are best defended by promoting his continued stay in the Villa;
“Uncover something in your request, or in your alliance, that will benefit him, and emphasize it out of proportion. He will respond enthusiastically when he sees something to be gained for himself.” – 48 Laws of Power p. 95

But can the Americans brazenly interfere in Nigeria’s internal politics?
The best way to profile Uncle Sam’s political preference in Nigeria is through existing evidence of past interference.
It is against that background that I seriously doubt if former President Goodluck Jonathan had ever read Patrick F. Wilmot’s 1979 book before assuming office.
If not, he wouldn’t have been so clueless in page 65 of his 2018 memoirs, My Transition Hours, to ask, “How can the US Secretary of State (John Kerry) know what is more important for Nigeria than Nigeria’s own government?”
Jonathan was livid about how Mr. Kerry personally met with the opposition APC presidential candidate in Lagos among other deliberately provocative statements by the American envoy against the Jonathan administration ahead of the 2015 polls.
The envoy didn’t care nor give a damn about the perception of the US clearly in the open supporting one candidate against the other in a Nigerian presidential election.
Why do I claim that Jonathan has probably never heard of Dr. Wilmot, the radical Zaria lecturer who resided in Nigeria from 1970 to 1988?

“One day, the fox invited the rabbit for lunch. The rabbit dressed in his finest suit, reached the fox’s house.
The fox gave the rabbit a warm welcome.
Then he offered him the rabbit’s favourite dish, carrot juice. But even after sipping it down, the rabbit was still hungry.
He asked the fox, “Friend, has the lunch not been cooked yet?”
The fox smiled and said, “Mine is ready because I can have raw lunch.”
With those words, the fox pounced on the rabbit and ate him up.”

The foregoing is a version of one of Aesop’s fables dating back to the 6th century BC in ancient Greece from which the Jamaican-born Wilmot adapted, “Each time a fox invites a rabbit for lunch rabbit stew is likely be on the menu” as contained in his must-read, In Search of Nationhood: The Theory and Practice of Nationalism in Africa.
That book gives an in-depth and analytical insight on how the international system works. Interestingly, the author also described his familiarity with Kerry when both at Yale in the 1960s.

Anyway, Jonathan continues in his own book;
“On March 23, 2015, President Obama himself took the unusual step of releasing a video directly to Nigerians all but telling them how to vote. In that video, Obama urged Nigerians to open “the next chapter” by their votes. Those who understood sublimal language deciphered that he was prodding the electorate to vote for the opposition to form a new government. The message was so condescending, it was as if Nigerians did not know what to do and needed Obama to direct them.”

Something tells me that if former President Jonathan had really known how to carefully read and properly interpret the body language of the Americans he wouldn’t have bothered to contest the 2015 presidential polls in the first place.
This is because in Chapter 12 of Against the Run of Play: How an Incumbent President was Defeated in Nigeria (2017) entitled, Web of Conspiracies?, Olusegun Adeniyi writes;
“In March 2014, twelve northern governors and one deputy governor were in the United States where they held sessions with senior officials of President Barrack Obama’s administration, including National Security Adviser, Ms. Susan Rice.
Organized by the US Institute of Peace, the aim of the visit was how the Americans could work together with the northern states to address the Boko Haram insurgency and the socio-economic challenges in the region arising from it.
Dr. Muazu Babangida Aliyu, Chairman of the Northern Governors Forum confided that in retrospect, he had a feeling the American authorities invited them not just because of Boko Haram but also to use them as a sounding board for the 2015 presidential election.
“I have no proof of course, but I think the idea was to ascertain what the disposition of the North would be to the idea of another term for President Jonathan. That was my reading of the situation.
I believe it was all about the 2015 election for which the Americans had resolved not to support Jonathan. They just wanted to size us up for the level of commitment to regime change,” Aliyu told me.”

The rest as they say is now history but not before David Axelrod, Obama’s maverick political campaign manager in the 2008 and 2012 American presidential elections was drafted to coordinate then Candidate Buhari’s campaign strategy here in Nigeria also.
By election day, when US Navy warships reportedly sailed into the Gulf of Guinea, Jonathan finally got the message by congratulating Buhari even before the results were fully collated.
As the 40th US President, Ronald Reagan would say, “If you can’t make them see the light, make them feel the heat.”

I bet President Tinubu really knows how to carefully read and properly interpret the body language of the Americans better than his onetime predecessor, Dr. Jonathan. The incumbent is after all reputed to be a “City boy”, not some “JJC” that swam out of the creeks.
Arguably, the “working lunch” hosted by Mr. Kerry was part a “Thank you” visit by Buhari to President Obama.
If so, the moral ahead of President Tinubu’s meeting with Biden is not only obvious but a preferential indication by the White House for the Nigerian leader.
Any of us who can’t properly read in-between the lines of both Ms. Liang’s comments or Madam Phee’s recent message must either be engaged in political wishful thinking or living on the moon.
I humbly stand to be corrected.