Geostrategic Risks of Delinking from EU-US Relationship for Nigeria, by Araka Okolieaboh

Geostrategic Risks of Delinking from EU-US Relationship for Nigeria, by Araka Okolieaboh

Introduction:
Nigeria finds itself at a critical juncture in its foreign policy landscape amid the escalating tensions between the United States and China, commonly referred to as the “new cold war.” As a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Nigeria faces significant challenges in navigating its relationships with global powers while balancing its own national interests. The recent dynamics necessitate a thorough review of Nigeria’s foreign policy approach, particularly concerning its alignment with either the US or China.

Current Situation:

US-China Rivalry: The intensifying competition between the US and China has global implications, impacting various regions’ stability and economic prosperity. Nigeria, being the largest economy in Africa, cannot remain immune to this rivalry, as both superpowers seek to expand their influence in the region.

Nigeria’s Foreign Policy Dilemma: Nigeria’s historical ties with the West, particularly the United States and European Union, have been significant in shaping its foreign policy priorities. However, the growing economic partnership with China presents an alternative avenue for development and investment, complicating Nigeria’s alignment choices.

Economic Considerations: Nigeria’s economy is intricately linked with both Western and Chinese markets. The EU and the US remain vital trading partners, providing critical investment, technology, and market access. Any significant shift in alignment could impact Nigeria’s economic stability, trade relations, and currency valuation.

Geostrategic Risks:

Economic Consequences: Delinking from the EU-US relationship could result in reduced access to markets, investment, and technology transfer. Nigeria’s economy heavily relies on exports to Western markets, particularly oil and gas, which could face disruptions or decreased demand in the event of strained relations.

Currency Fluctuations: Nigeria’s currency, the Naira, is susceptible to fluctuations in global markets, especially concerning its dependency on oil exports. A shift away from Western partnerships may lead to increased currency volatility, affecting trade and investment flows as witnessed lately.

Diplomatic Isolation: A departure from traditional Western alliances could isolate Nigeria diplomatically, limiting its influence on the global stage and potentially weakening its position within regional organizations such as ECOWAS.

Security Implications: Close ties with Western powers provide Nigeria with security cooperation, intelligence-sharing, and military assistance. Any rupture in these relationships could leave Nigeria vulnerable to security threats, including terrorism, piracy, and regional conflicts.

Recommendations:

Balanced Engagement: Nigeria should adopt a nuanced approach in its foreign policy, maintaining constructive relations with both the US and China while safeguarding its national interests. This entails leveraging partnerships for economic development, technological advancement, and security cooperation.

Diversification of Partnerships: Nigeria should explore opportunities to diversify its partnerships beyond traditional Western allies and China. Engaging with emerging powers, regional blocs, and multilateral institutions can provide alternative avenues for economic growth and strategic collaboration.

Risk Mitigation Strategies: Implementing robust risk management mechanisms, including currency hedging, investment diversification, and trade agreements diversification, can help mitigate the potential economic fallout from geopolitical tensions.

Enhanced Diplomatic Outreach: Nigeria should actively engage in diplomatic dialogue and advocacy efforts to articulate its foreign policy objectives and seek consensus among key stakeholders. Building bridges between conflicting parties and promoting regional stability should be prioritized.

Conclusion:
Nigeria stands at a crossroads in its foreign policy trajectory, compelled to recalibrate its alignment amid the shifting dynamics of the new cold war. While the temptation to choose sides may seem compelling, Nigeria’s long-term interests lie in maintaining a balanced and pragmatic approach that safeguards its sovereignty, promotes economic prosperity, and enhances regional stability. Strategic foresight, diplomatic agility, and proactive risk management will be essential in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape and ensuring Nigeria’s resilience in the face of uncertainty.

Araka Okolieaboh, CMC, FIMC.
Sustainability Strategist & Risk Intelligence Analyst, WSB University, Dabrowa Gornicza, Poland.