Guerrilla Warfare and Nigeria’s Counter-Insurgency Strategy
By MUKHTAR Ya’u Madobi,
It is beyond debate. War is not won merely by the strength of numbers or the size of an army. History has repeatedly shown that strategy, surprise and deception often determine the outcome of battles.
In modern asymmetric conflicts, smaller and less equipped forces frequently rely on unconventional tactics to challenge more structured military formations.
This appears to be the pattern increasingly adopted by terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province in Nigeria’s North-East. In recent months, these groups have intensified their reliance on guerrilla warfare , thereby launching sudden night attacks, ambushes and hit-and-run operations against military formations.
The objective is clear: destabilize frontline defenses, inflict casualties, loot weapons and undermine troop morale. Unfortunately, the consequences of these tactics have been devastating.
Across parts of Borno and Yobe States, insurgents have repeatedly targeted military bases through surprise offensives. These attacks often involve overrunning forward operating bases, killing soldiers, destroying military hardware and carting away weapons and ammunition.
In many cases, terrorists also torch military logistics such as patrol vehicles and Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs), thereby crippling operational mobility. Beyond the military installations, civilians are also frequently caught in the crossfire.
A recent example occurred in Ngoshe town in Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State, where insurgents reportedly attacked after ransacking a nearby military base. During the invasion, residents were killed, the Chief Imam was reportedly slaughtered and hundreds of civilians were abducted or forced to flee their homes in fear of further attacks.
Perhaps the most disturbing pattern emerging from these assaults is the frequent killing of commanding officers during attacks on military formations. In several instances, brigade or battalion commanders have died while leading defensive operations against insurgent offensives.
Within the first week of March 2026 alone, the Nigerian military reportedly lost three commanding officers during attacks on forward operating bases in Borno State.
The officers included: Major U. I. Mairiga, commander of the Mayenti base, Lieutenant Colonel Umar Faruq, commander of the Kukawa base and the 101 Brigade Commander, Lieutenant Colonel S. I. Iliyasu of Konduga.
Their deaths raised the number of commanding officers reportedly killed in recent attacks to seven within just three months, including one brigadier general.
Local observers and security analysts believe these incidents underscore the persistent threat posed by insurgent groups despite ongoing military operations across the North-East.
On March 9, 2026, insurgents reportedly overran a military base in Kukawa Local Government Area around midnight, killing Lieutenant Colonel Umar Faruq and several soldiers. Ironically, only weeks earlier, the same commander had successfully repelled an earlier terrorist assault on the base—an action widely praised by residents and on social media.
Similarly, on March 1, 2026, Major Umar Ibrahim Mairiga was killed during an attack on the Mayenti military base in Bama Local Government Area after reportedly putting up fierce resistance before being overwhelmed.
Just days later, on March 6, insurgents attacked the 222 Battalion in Konduga, killing Lieutenant Colonel S. I. Iliyasu and several soldiers, including personnel attached to the 21 Special Armoured Brigade.
Earlier incidents followed a similar pattern. On January 28, insurgents ambushed troops near Damasak, killing seven soldiers including their commanding officer. Another attack in Jakana, Kaga Local Government Area, resulted in the destruction of armoured vehicles and the looting of ammunition.
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Even prior to these incidents, the Nigerian Army had confirmed the death of Lieutenant Colonel Aliyu Saidu Paiko, commander of the 202 Battalion, during an encounter with insurgents in Bama Local Government Area in October 2025.
While these losses are deeply painful, it is equally important to acknowledge that the Nigerian military has recorded significant operational gains in recent months.
Troops have intensified operations in major terrorist strongholds including: the Sambisa Forest, Timbuktu Triangle, Mandara Mountains, and the Lake Chad Basin.
According to operational updates from the Armed Forces, numerous insurgent commanders and fighters have been neutralized during combat missions, with several terrorist camps destroyed and logistics seized.
These operations have undoubtedly degraded the operational capacity of insurgent groups, even though they continue to demonstrate resilience through asymmetric warfare.
However, the continued targeting of military bases and senior officers carries serious implications.
First, the loss of experienced commanders weakens operational leadership at the frontline. Commanding officers possess years of battlefield experience, institutional knowledge and tactical expertise that cannot be easily replaced.
Second, repeated attacks on military formations risk undermining troop morale. Soldiers who see their leaders frequently targeted or killed may experience psychological pressure that affects operational confidence.
Third, public perception is also affected. Frequent reports of base overruns can fuel public anxiety and weaken trust in the state’s capacity to defeat insurgency.
Security expert and former director of the Department of State Services, Mike Ejiofor, has described the killing of senior officers as troubling and called for both immediate and long-term responses to the country’s security challenges.
According to him, while citizens must support security agencies with credible intelligence in the short term, and broader reforms such as the establishment of state police may become necessary in the long run.
No doubt, the recent pattern of insurgent attacks highlights the urgent need for adjustments in Nigeria’s counter-insurgency strategy. Strengthening intelligence gathering through closer cooperation between communities, intelligence agencies and the military is essential for detecting threats early.
The deployment of modern surveillance technologies such as drones and night-vision systems can also improve monitoring around military formations. In addition, forward operating bases must be better fortified to withstand coordinated assaults, while improved mobility and rapid reinforcement will help troops respond swiftly to attacks.
Above all, stronger civil-military cooperation is crucial, as timely information from local communities can help security forces prevent surprise attacks and reduce casualties.
Insurgencies thrive in environments where intelligence gaps exist. Closing those gaps must therefore become a priority.
The sacrifices of Nigeria’s soldiers and commanders in the fight against terrorism cannot be overstated. Many of them have paid the ultimate price defending the nation against insurgent violence.
However, the recurring pattern of surprise attacks on military bases and the tragic loss of experienced commanders demand urgent strategic reassessment. While the Nigerian military continues to record operational successes, insurgent groups have demonstrated their ability to adapt through guerrilla tactics.
To sustain momentum in the counter-insurgency campaign, authorities must reinforce military formations, strengthen intelligence networks and enhance community collaboration.
If these challenges are not decisively addressed, the ripple effects could extend beyond the battlefield, thereby eroding troop morale, weakening public confidence and prolonging the insurgency.
Nigeria owes its fallen heroes more than remembrance. It owes them a strategy that ensures their sacrifices ultimately lead to lasting peace and security.
MUKHTAR Ya’u Madobi is a Fellow at the Centre for Crisis Communication. He writes from Abuja.
