SWOT ANALYSIS: EVALUATING MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AND SECURITY THREATS TO 2023 NIGERIA’S ELECTIONS
An Abridged Version of the Special Security Report
Presented by PRNigeria
In about 10 days from now, precisely next week, the Nigerian electorate will troop out in large numbers, to elect a new President that will stair the affairs of our dear country, from May 29, 2023.
But citizens will not only be casting their ballots for only the 18 presidential candidates on Saturday, February 2023, they will also vote to elect 469 members of the 10th Senate and House of Representatives.
At the moment, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, appears ready to conduct smooth and hitch-free general elections. But violent activities and the heinous crimes perpetrated by Boko Haram/ISWAP terrorists, IPOB militias, Bandits, and unknown gunmen among others, have the potential to scuttle INEC’s plan, if the government, security agencies and other key stakeholders fail to act.
As part of PRNigeria‘s commitment to helping entrench Nigeria’s democratic space, through in-depth analysis of socio-economic issues and political events shaping the 2023 polls, we recently undertook a field trip to some States, across the country. The States include Rivers, Delta (South-South), Enugu, Imo (South-East), Lagos, Oyo (South-West), Kano, Kebbi (Northwest), Borno, Gombe (North-East) and Kwara, Niger (North Central).
The major respondents are in the media industry and the security sector which are more relevant to the study. We also undertook virtual surveys/interviews on the fears and aspirations of the electorates in other states over the security situations ahead of the forthcoming elections.
This was with a view to draw the attention of the security agencies, in particular, to the places we have identified as flashpoints prior to, during and even after the entire general elections.
Again, our reporters meticulously conducted the SWOT Analysis of major presidential candidates, which are often mentioned by the respondent in the course of the report, with a view to ensuring relevant security agencies are informed about the candidates’ profiles and how their participation in the electoral process can affect the country’s fragile peace and unity, in the next few days, months and even years ahead.
While we have submitted the comprehensive report to relevant security services/agencies including the sensitive components of likely security threats in the event some of the notable candidates lose in the elections, this is an abridged version for the public.
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ATIKU ABUBAKAR
Strength/Opportunity
1. A two-term former Vice President and a serial presidential aspirant since 1992, Atiku is considered to be a ‘unifier’, with political associates across the country.
2. His political platform, PDP is the major opposition, with an enormous political structure across the country that can satisfy the yearning of those clamouring for change from the current ruling party APC.
3. He has branded himself as an epitome of nationalism and religious tolerance courtesy of his Muslim-Christian ticket
4. He has the support and backing of the PDP Governors.
5. In spite of his old age, Atiku is still very healthy, mentally alert, very vibrant, and energetic and seems to possess the vitality to run the race.
Weakness/Threat
1. With trust issues, Atiku was accused of betrayal and corruption by his boss, former president Olusegun Obasanjo
2. His ideology of commercializing and privatization of public/government enterprises may undermine his chances
3. At 75, he doesn’t fit into the new clamour for a younger president
4. The massive clamour for the southern presidency in 2023 may scuttle his ambition
5. His Chances in the traditional PDP states can be negatively affected by Peter Obi’s candidature in LP as well as the recalcitrant stance of the G5 may affect his chances
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BOLA AHMED TINUBU
Strength/Opportunity
1. A former governor of Lagos State, his party has 22 State governors out of 36 and also with the majority in membership of both the Senate and House of Rep.
2. Very wealthy with a huge financial muscle to prosecute the election to his favour by “Ways and Means” large followership from his South-West Region.
3. As a Muslim having another Muslim as a running mate, may attract more voting by fundamental Muslims in the North
4. Popular governors, especially in the North are solidly behind him in public appearance.
5. He is recognised as the brain behind the transformation of modern Lagos with excellent blueprints that are widely attributed to him
Weakness/Threat
1. Old age, ill health and corruption allegations are the major campaigns against him by the opposition
2. Apart from some of the political officers from his base (South-West) and party APC displaying lackadaisical attitudes towards his ambition, the apex Yoruba socio-cultural organization, Afenifere, has rejected his candidature and instead endorsed Peter Obi
3. Recent outbursts and commentaries indicate that the Presidency and the Cabal are against his candidacy
4. Campaign blunders on the stages where he made a slip of tongues, further demonstrated his weaknesses.
5. His Muslim-Muslim Tickets and poor recitation of Islamic verses may be his albatross among fundamental Christians and Muslims respectively.
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OMOYELE SOWORE
Strength/Opportunity
1. He is the founder of the influential Sahara Reporters, a citizen journalism media platform
2. He is among the youngest presidential candidates that appeal to the Not-Too-Young-to-Run campaign
3. He has remained a major cause of headaches for people in power so much so that the mere mention of his name makes them want to run
4. A dogged human rights activist… He has spoken eloquently with facts and figures on challenges and solutions to Nigeria’s problems in his campaigns.
5. Sowore is a household name in the support of the downtrodden and his fight against the dictatorial tendencies of those in power.
Weakness/Threat
1. His popularity across the nation cannot necessarily translate into votes
2. His party, the African Action Congress (AAC) lacks the political structure to match that of other presidential candidates across the states of the federation.
3. Lack of awareness about his candidature by people in rural and even urban communities.
4. Sowore is not financially buoyant to fund presidential campaigns
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PETER OBI
Strength/Opportunity
1. Peter Obi a two-term Anambra governor and well-established businessman, his Labour Party is touted as the Third-Force
2. He has the backing and endorsement of the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum (SMBLF), Christian Clerics and the leaders of the apex Yoruba socio-cultural organisation, Afenifere
3. Biafra agitators and their sympathizers are considering Obi as their best bet to actualize their dream, thus will support him as the Igbo candidate.
4. Relatively young compared to others, his candidacy has metamorphosed into a formidable political movement called OBidient, with massive youth supports
5. He is regarded as a prudent politician and a very humble public figure.
Weakness/Threat
1. His party lacks the political structure and national geographical spread
2. Majority of the citizens, especially Northerners and Muslims consider Obi as an ethnic and religious candidate
3. He is often accused of giving unverifiable and unreliable statistics during his campaigns
4. He is perceived to be a ‘miserly’ politician, who does not dispense cash
5. He is not enjoying the support and backing of his State Governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, and some influential Igbo politicians.
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RABIU MUSA KWANKWASO
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Strength/Opportunity
1. He is a grass-root politician and two-term governor of Kano State. A former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, former Defence Minister, and former Senator, Kwankwaso has leadership experience.
2. He is very popular on the streets of Kano, Kaduna, Sokoto, Gombe, Katsina and Nasarawa,
3. A PhD holder, he is regarded as the architect of modern Kano with his legacies of massive infrastructure and his continuous provisions of scholarship for brilliant indigent students.
4. He has a cult followership among the downtrodden (Talakawa) in the North called the Kwankwasiyya movement.
5. He has successfully, within a short period, raised the profile of his NNPP
*Weakness/Threat*
1. Kwankwaso has not made a serious attempt to sell his presidential ambition in the South as the agitation for a Southern presidency will constitute a stumbling block to his ambition
2. His political party, NNPP lacks the structure and resources to challenge either PDP or APC in the 2023 presidential election
3. His political base, Kano, will be checkmated by other political bigwigs like his own former protégé, Governor Ganduje of APC and Mallam Shekarau of PDP.
4. He is accused of being stingy and money is integral part of Nigerian politics.
5. With Atiku, another popular northern politician, on the ballot, Kwankwaso’s chances at the presidential toll may be grossly affected.
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SECURITY SITUATION AT STATE LEVELS
There have been reports of politically-motivated killings in some States of the federation. In November 2022 for instance, the National Security Adviser, Babagana Monguno, reported that there were 52 cases of political violence across 22 states in one month.
Between 2019 and 2022, hoodlums attacked more than 50 offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, in 15 States. There have been cases of destruction of billboards, campaign vehicles, offices and other property. Several campaign rallies have been violently disrupted and convoys attacked.
Meanwhile, in the last couple of weeks, cases of terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, politically motivated attacks and violence have spiralled across the country just as we are approaching the 2023 polls
PRNigeria‘s Investigation and Finding
Ahead of the first round of the 2023 general elections, slated for 25 February 2023, PRNigeria has identified States where there are cases of criminal activities like kidnapping, terrorism and violent separatist agitations among others that may affect the peaceful conduct of the elections, especially if security agencies and other necessary stakeholders are not proactive in stemming any violent threat.
NATURE OF SECURITY RISK:
NORTHWEST
Banditry, Kidnapping, Political Thuggery
NORTHEAST
Insurgency, and Terrorism
NORTH CENTRAL
Farmers-herders’ conflicts, communal clashes and Kidnapping
SOUTH-WEST
Secessionists Agitation, Political Thuggery, Communal Clashes
SOUTH-SOUTH
Resource control Agitation, Militancy, kidnapping
SOUTH-EAST
Violent separatist agitation, Kidnapping, Political Thuggery
PATTERNS OF SECURITY RISKS ACROSS STATES
a. Banditry and Kidnapping:
Niger, Katsina, Zamfara, Kaduna*, Edo*, Kebbi and Sokoto
b. Separatists Agitations:
Anambra, Imo*, Abia, Enugu and Ebonyi*
c. Terrorism/Violent Extremism:
Borno, Adamawa and Yobe
d. Farmers-Herders/Communal Clashes:
Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau, Taraba*, Kaduna*, Gombe, Oyo*, Ondo, Ekiti and Ogun, Kwara
e. Political Thuggery:
Kano, Lagos*, Bauchi, Gombe, Kogi*, Rivers*, Osun, Jigawa, Cross River,
f. Resource Control Agitations
Bayelsa, Delta*, Akwa-Ibom*
*States with asterisks have more than one pattern of security risk
OTHER OBSERVATIONS
1 The rash of unscientific opinion polls and partisan projections have heightened public anxiety and influenced extreme optimism among candidates and their supporters, which could undermine national security
2. Due to the naira crunch, the general elections may witness cashless vote-buying/trading where electorates would have free tickets after voting to obtain goods and services from retailing outlets
3. Ruling parties in some states have perfected plans to ensure victories for their candidates and this may lead to desperation and attempts to manipulate or falsify results.
4. Disturbing ethnocentric and religious sentiments in political campaigns have further created fear of potential violence during and after the election.
5. Since some electorates are of the view that their votes do not really count, either rightly or wrongly on the assumption that the outcome of most elections are pre-determined, voter apathy may still be an issue in some places.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Political Parties
a. Political parties and their supporters should adhere to electoral rules and be quick to embrace the spirit of sportsmanship, whenever the outcome of any election is announced.
b. There is the need for political candidates to demonstrate mature and exemplary leadership, by eschewing inciting utterances and actions capable of provoking social unrest.
Community
c. Community leaders should preach the gospel of peace and unity, while encouraging youths to shun political thuggery and other forms of violence.
d. There is a need for individual communities to support the government in launching sensitization campaigns and advocacies on tolerance and peaceful co-existence through appropriate communication channels.
Publics
e. There is a need for individual communities to support the government in launching sensitization campaigns and advocacies on tolerance and peaceful co-existence through appropriate communication channels.
f. The general public should at their own discretion avoid any form of violence that may scuttle the successful conduct of the election and undermine national security.
Security
g. Security bodies should sustain their already established inter-agency collaboration and synergy, to foster quick emergency response as well as effective joint operations.
h. They should also strive to adhere to their rules of engagement and standards operating procedures while dealing with the electorate and election stakeholders.
i. Prior, during and after the polls, our security agencies should be proactive in mounting aggressive patrols in strategic places, in order to build the confidence of the masses who will be going out to perform their legitimate businesses.
Electoral Empire
h. There is a need for INEC officials to eschew actions and other misconducts that would portray them as being partisan.
i. They should ensure adequate deployment of Personnel and timely provision of logistics on election days.
Media
j. There is a need for the media to shun sensationalism and discourage the peddling of unverified, unauthorised and fake election results.
k. And more importantly, the media should support the coordinated efforts of other key stakeholders in lowering the already-tensed political atmosphere in the country.
Conclusion
Amid the tension that has engulfed the nation’s political space in recent years, we must commend the Nigerian security agencies for deliberately choosing to remain neutral, fair and apolitical in the build-up to the forthcoming general elections.
It is imperative that we urge them to remain steadfast in discharging their constitutional mandates of protecting lives and property before, during and after the elections.
This report is produced with support from the Wole Soyinka Centre for Investigative Journalism (WSCIJ) under the Collaborative Media Engagement for Development Inclusivity and Accountability project (CMEDIA) funded by the MacArthur Foundation
Researchers:
Abdulsalam Mahmud
Deputy Editor PRNigeria
Author, Gen LEO Irabor: The Pearl of Defence
PRNigeria Centre, Abuja
Mukhtar Yau Madobi
Staff Writer, Emergency Digest
Author, National Security Strategies- A Young Writer’s Perspective
PRNigeria Centre Kano
February 15, 2023
