X-raying Economic and Socio-Political  Impacts of Inflation in Nigeria, by Araka Okolieaboh

X-raying Economic and Socio-Political  Impacts of Inflation in Nigeria, by Araka Okolieaboh

Nigeria’s socio-political and economic landscape has been deeply shaped by its historical decisions, particularly in the face of external and internal advisories for prudent economic management. This was notably emphasized by Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the current Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), during her tenure as Nigeria’s Finance Minister. Her calls for fiscal prudence, investment in savings, and responsible spending were often disregarded by successive governments, leading to a fragile economic foundation. The country’s vulnerabilities were exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, where the absence of robust reserves and strategic frameworks to address economic shocks became apparent.

In this context, inflation is one of the most significant socio-economic challenges facing Nigeria today. As inflation eats away at the purchasing power of ordinary citizens, its ripple effects extend into political instability and social unrest. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that Nigeria’s inflation rate has been on a steady climb, reaching unprecedented levels. This reality necessitates a closer examination of the root causes, as well as a comprehensive strategy to mitigate its effects.

Root Causes of Nigeria’s Inflation Crisis
Monetary Mismanagement and Fiscal Imbalance: One of the primary drivers of inflation in Nigeria is monetary mismanagement. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s interventions, including printing money to cover fiscal deficits, have contributed to inflationary pressures. The lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies has exacerbated these issues. Fiscal imbalance, largely driven by over-dependence on oil revenues, has left Nigeria vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. When oil prices plummeted, the government resorted to borrowing and monetary easing, leading to currency depreciation and higher inflation.

Lack of Strategic Savings and Investment: Had Nigeria followed the advisories of Dr. Okonjo-Iweala and other economic experts, the country could have established stronger financial buffers to mitigate external shocks. Countries that had built sovereign wealth funds and strong foreign reserves managed to weather the COVID-19 storm better. Nigeria’s lack of strategic savings has been a critical misstep, leaving the country exposed to inflationary pressures, particularly in times of crisis.

Impact of COVID-19: While COVID-19 was not a death sentence for the economy, it was a game-changer that revealed deep-seated structural weaknesses. The pandemic disrupted supply chains, reduced global demand for oil (Nigeria’s main export), and led to a contraction in economic activity. Inflation surged as the cost of imported goods rose due to the weakening naira, while domestic production was hampered by lockdowns and restrictions.

Insecurity and Agricultural Disruption: The growing insecurity in Nigeria, particularly in the northern region, has severely impacted agricultural production. With farmers unable to access their farmlands, food production has decreased, leading to food inflation. The rising cost of food, a staple for most Nigerian households, has contributed to social discontent and political instability. Food inflation, in particular, has exacerbated poverty, with many families struggling to meet basic needs.

Socio-Political-Economic Consequences of Inflation
Erosion of Purchasing Power: Inflation has significantly eroded the purchasing power of Nigerians. The cost of living has skyrocketed, with basic commodities such as food, fuel, and healthcare becoming unaffordable for the average citizen. This has increased the poverty rate, with over 40% of the population now living below the poverty line. The middle class, once the backbone of the economy, is shrinking as wages fail to keep up with rising prices.

Social Unrest and Political Instability: Economic hardship has a direct correlation with social unrest. In recent years, Nigeria has witnessed protests and civil unrest, driven by frustration over rising living costs, unemployment, and poor governance. The #EndSARS movement, although primarily focused on police brutality, also reflected deeper socio-economic discontent. Inflation, coupled with unemployment and a lack of opportunities, has fueled a volatile political climate.

Youth Disillusionment and the Brain Drain: An important demographic affected by inflation is Nigeria’s youth population. Faced with diminishing opportunities, many young Nigerians are increasingly disillusioned with the political and economic system. The lack of economic prospects has driven a brain drain, with many talented professionals seeking better opportunities abroad. This exacerbates Nigeria’s development challenges, as the country loses critical human capital needed for innovation and growth.

Impact on Businesses and Investments: Inflation has also negatively impacted the business environment. The cost of raw materials and production has risen, while demand has shrunk as consumers’ purchasing power declines. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are the backbone of the Nigerian economy, have struggled to survive in this inflationary environment. Foreign investors are also wary, as inflation erodes the value of returns, leading to a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI).

Strategic Recommendations
In addressing the socio-political-economic impacts of inflation, Nigeria needs a multi-faceted approach that not only stabilizes the economy but also promotes long-term growth. The following strategies are crucial:

Monetary Policy Reforms: The Central Bank of Nigeria must prioritize price stability and strengthen the naira by tightening monetary policy and curbing excessive money supply. There is a need for more transparency and coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities to ensure sustainable economic management.

Diversification of the Economy: Nigeria must accelerate its efforts to diversify the economy away from oil dependency. This includes investing in sectors such as agriculture, technology, and manufacturing. By boosting local production and reducing reliance on imports, Nigeria can mitigate the effects of external shocks on its economy.

Strengthening Social Safety Nets: To cushion the effects of inflation, the government must expand social safety net programs, such as conditional cash transfers and food assistance. Targeted interventions are needed to support vulnerable populations, particularly in regions severely impacted by food inflation and insecurity.

Addressing Insecurity: Tackling the root causes of insecurity, especially in the agricultural regions, is critical to stabilizing food production and reducing inflation. The government must adopt a holistic approach to security that combines military efforts with socio-economic development programs.

Youth Engagement and Entrepreneurship: Given the role of youth in driving economic transformation, the government should invest in programs that promote youth entrepreneurship and skills development. Strategic communication and education are also essential in reshaping the mindset of Nigerian youths towards self-reliance and innovative problem-solving.

Conclusion
Inflation in Nigeria is not merely an economic issue but a multi-dimensional crisis that cuts across socio-political and economic lines. Addressing it requires a comprehensive approach that tackles the root causes, stabilizes the economy, and fosters inclusive growth. The COVID-19 pandemic may have been an unexpected shock, but it offers an opportunity for Nigeria to rethink its economic policies and build a more resilient future. As the country navigates these challenges, strategic communication and a focus on innovation, driven by a knowledge-based economy, will be essential in shaping the next chapter of Nigeria’s development.

By Araka Okolieaboh, CMC, FIMC.
Policy Design Thinker & Prompt Engineering Specialist.
WSB University, Dabrowa Gornicza, Poland.