Nigeria’s Growth Numbers Tell Only Half the Story By Umar Farouk Bala

Nigeria’s Growth Numbers Tell Only Half the Story By Umar Farouk Bala

Nigeria is a land of riches—blessed with oil, brimming with talent, and full of promise. Yet, despite all that potential, we find ourselves ranked among the world’s poorest nations.

According to the International Monetary Fund and a recent report by Visual Capitalist, Nigeria now sits as the 12th poorest country on earth by GDP per capita, placing 178th out of 189 countries. That means the average Nigerian survives on just $807 a year.

It’s a sobering reality, especially for a country often called the “giant of Africa.” This paradox is hard to ignore because it’s unfolding right after Nigeria implemented two of the IMF’s most influential reform recommendations—removing fuel subsidies and allowing the naira to float freely.

These policies were promoted as necessary steps toward fixing our economy. Instead, they have brought a surge in inflation, food insecurity, and debt. Millions of Nigerians now find themselves poorer than ever. In 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government took bold steps.

It scrapped the long-standing petrol subsidy, arguing that it drained the national budget. The decision, while praised by economists abroad, triggered an immediate spike in transport fares, food prices, and daily essentials. For ordinary Nigerians, life became more expensive overnight.

Alongside this, the administration liberalised the foreign exchange market, allowing the naira to find its value naturally. This was seen as a move toward transparency and investor confidence. But it also led to a sharp devaluation of the currency, making imports costlier and business harder for many.

The idea behind these reforms was to save government money, attract investment, and drive long-term growth. But what Nigerians got instead was an economic squeeze. For many, it’s a daily struggle just to survive.

When we speak of GDP per capita, we’re talking about how much of the country’s wealth is available per person. And right now, Nigeria’s figure places it in the same bracket as countries torn by war or long-term crisis—nations like South Sudan and Yemen.

That comparison stings, especially for a country with over 220 million people, abundant oil, fertile land, and a rising youth population. But these strengths mean little when poverty is rising, jobs are scarce, and institutions remain weak.

Even the IMF, which once cheered these reforms, is now sounding more cautious. At its 2025 Spring Meetings, the IMF’s Nigeria Mission Chief, Axel Schimmelpfenning, acknowledged that poverty and food insecurity remain high. The World Bank has gone further, warning that if the current trend continues, 216 million Nigerians could be living in poverty by 2027.

That’s not just a statistic. It’s a future many Nigerians can already feel creeping closer. A major part of the crisis lies in Nigeria’s growing debt. Our total debt to multilateral lenders like the World Bank and IMF has reached over $18 billion.

In 2024, more than half of Nigeria’s government revenue went into servicing debt. That leaves very little for education, healthcare, roads, or other essentials that truly touch lives. Worse still, while we borrow to fund these reforms, our economy is slowing down.

The IMF has cut our growth forecast to 3 percent in 2025, with further decline expected in 2026. Falling oil prices, debt strain, and policy uncertainty have all played a role. What this tells us is simple: these reforms, on their own, are not enough. Nigeria needs more than borrowed policies.

We need our own blueprint. One that puts people first. It’s time to look inward and design solutions that reflect our realities. Fiscal discipline is important, but it must be matched with transparent governance and smart investment.

We must stop relying on oil alone and begin diversifying into agriculture, manufacturing, and digital industries. These sectors can provide jobs, build resilience, and grow the economy from the ground up. Security and infrastructure matter too.

No investor will stay where peace is unsure and roads are broken. Regulation must be fair, clear, and supportive—not a burden to those trying to build businesses or create jobs. Above all, we must learn the most important lesson of this moment: economic reforms mean little if they leave people behind.

A policy that looks good on paper but deepens poverty in practice needs to be rethought. What Nigeria needs now is not just reform. We need leadership that listens, that understands, and that dares to imagine a different path.

We need solutions that speak not just to institutions but to the hopes and struggles of everyday Nigerians. Until then, the paradox will remain—an economy praised in global reports, but a people still waiting to feel the change.

Umar Farouk Bala is a corps member serving with the PRNigeria Centre, Abuja. He can be reached via [email protected].