Two Years of Tinubu’s Security Strategy: What the Numbers Reveal
By Col. Timothy Antigha (Rtd)
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, he inherited a nation grappling with multiple and overlapping security crises. Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgents remained active in the Northeast. Armed banditry ravaged communities across the Northwest. Kidnapping for ransom had become a lucrative criminal enterprise. Oil theft continued to undermine national revenue in the Niger Delta. The police faced manpower shortages and operational challenges, while troop morale had been weakened by prolonged deployments and welfare concerns.
In such a complex environment, no administration could realistically promise immediate victory. The more appropriate question has always been whether the government is degrading threats, strengthening institutions, and gradually reclaiming national security space.
Two years into the Tinubu administration, available security indicators suggest that while challenges remain, measurable progress has been recorded across several critical sectors.
Security reform begins with political commitment, and political commitment is often most visible in budgetary priorities.
Defence and security allocations increased from ₦2.98 trillion in 2023 to ₦3.25 trillion in 2024, before rising significantly to ₦4.91 trillion in the 2025 budget. This represents a 64 percent increase within two years, underscoring the administration’s decision to prioritize security as a central governance objective.
Institutionally, the June 2023 replacement of service chiefs, the National Security Adviser, and the Inspector-General of Police injected new energy into the nation’s security architecture. Since then, the National Security Council has reportedly met more than 22 times, a frequency considerably higher than previous years.
The result has been improved inter-agency coordination. Defence Headquarters briefings indicate that response times for joint operations in parts of the Northwest have reduced from approximately 72 hours to less than 24 hours under the Chief of Defence Staff-led operational framework.
Northeast: Shrinking the Insurgents’ Space
The insurgency in the Northeast remains a threat, but its operational footprint has diminished.
According to available data, the number of local government areas experiencing active insurgent control has reportedly declined from 17 in 2022 to fewer than six by 2025. Roads such as the Maiduguri-Damaturu-Monguno corridor, once considered high-risk routes, have become significantly safer for civilian movement during daylight hours.
Equally noteworthy is the growing number of insurgent defections. More than 104,000 former fighters and their family members have reportedly surrendered under the combined pressure of Operation Safe Corridor and the Multinational Joint Task Force.
Civilian casualties have also declined considerably. Data from conflict-monitoring organisations indicate a significant reduction in insurgency-related deaths across Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states compared to pre-2023 levels.
These developments do not signify victory, but they demonstrate sustained pressure against insurgent networks.
Northwest: Degrading Banditry Networks
If the Northeast represented a long-running insurgency challenge, the Northwest presented a more immediate and unpredictable threat.
Bandit groups operated across vast forests, attacked communities, kidnapped citizens, and disrupted economic activity. By many assessments, this was the Tinubu administration’s toughest security test.
Recent military operations appear to have weakened several of these networks.
Defence authorities have confirmed the neutralization of dozens of high-profile bandit commanders and key lieutenants through coordinated ground and air operations. The Nigerian Air Force has also intensified aerial campaigns under operations such as Forest Sanity and Fansan Yamma.
Kidnapping statistics suggest a downward trend. Independent security reports indicate reductions in both the number of kidnapping victims and the amount paid as ransom.
Perhaps most significantly, Nigeria has not witnessed the scale of mass school abductions that once dominated headlines during earlier years. States such as Kaduna, Katsina, and Zamfara have reported noticeable reductions in attacks on rural communities.
While isolated incidents continue to occur, the overall trajectory suggests containment rather than escalation.
National security extends beyond military operations. It also encompasses economic assets.
Recognizing this, the administration treated oil theft as both an economic and security challenge.
Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production reportedly increased from approximately 1.22 million barrels per day in May 2023 to about 1.60 million barrels per day by mid-2026.
Pipeline vandalism incidents have declined, while the Nigerian Navy has intensified operations against illegal refining sites.
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The economic implications are substantial. Increased production translates into billions of dollars in additional foreign exchange earnings, helping stabilize government revenue and reduce pressure on the national economy.
In this regard, security gains have directly contributed to economic resilience.
The effectiveness of internal security depends heavily on the strength of the police.
Over the past two years, annual recruitment exercises have added approximately 30,000 new personnel to the Nigeria Police Force. Salary improvements for rank-and-file officers have also been implemented, while investments in barracks, forensic laboratories, and operational infrastructure have continued through the Police Trust Fund.
Technology has become an increasingly important component of policing. The E-Policing platform has expanded digital reporting capabilities, while surveillance infrastructure continues to improve in key urban centres such as Abuja and Lagos.
Although Nigeria remains below globally recommended police-to-population ratios, these reforms represent incremental progress toward a more capable law enforcement system.
Modern security challenges require modern solutions.The increasing use of drones, surveillance technologies, and intelligence-driven operations has become one of the defining features of Nigeria’s evolving security strategy.
The reported elimination of senior terrorist figures through precision operations demonstrates growing intelligence capabilities and improved collaboration with international partners.
Military sources indicate that drone surveillance hours have increased significantly compared to previous years, while precision strike effectiveness has improved considerably.
This shift reflects a transition from reactive engagements to more proactive and intelligence-based operations.
Restoring Troop Morale
No security strategy succeeds without motivated personnel.
One of the administration’s less-publicized achievements has been its focus on troop welfare.
Outstanding operational allowances were reportedly cleared within months of the administration taking office. Compensation for fallen personnel has become more timely, while military training opportunities have expanded both locally and internationally.
Improved counter-IED training has also contributed to a reduction in military casualties caused by explosive devices.
These measures may not attract headlines, but they have a direct impact on operational effectiveness.
Tackling the Root Causes of Insecurity
Security operations alone cannot solve insecurity.
Recognizing this reality, the administration has increasingly linked security policy with economic development.
Millions of hectares of farmland have reportedly been reclaimed in previously insecure areas, enabling farmers to return to productive activities. Infrastructure projects in conflict-prone regions have improved mobility, reduced vulnerability to attacks, and strengthened economic connectivity.
The rehabilitation of strategic roads across northern Nigeria has not only facilitated commerce but has also reduced opportunities for criminal ambushes.
In essence, development has become an integral component of the broader security strategy.
What the Data Ultimately Suggests
No government can eliminate insecurity within two years. Such expectations are unrealistic, particularly in a country confronting decades-old security challenges.
The more meaningful test is whether threats are being degraded and whether institutions are becoming stronger.
By several measurable indicators, the answer appears positive.
Security spending has increased significantly. Areas under insurgent influence have declined. Kidnapping figures have reduced. Oil production has improved. Police recruitment has expanded. Troop welfare has received greater attention.
These developments do not mean Nigeria’s security challenges are over. Banditry remains a concern. Terrorist groups continue to adapt. Criminal networks still exploit governance gaps and economic hardship.
However, the available evidence suggests that Nigeria is no longer consistently losing ground.
The security architecture is becoming more proactive, technology-driven, intelligence-led, and coordinated than it was two years ago.
It is against this backdrop that the Honourable Minister of Defence, General Christopher Gwabin Musa (Rtd), recently assessed the administration’s security performance at 70 percent.
Whether one agrees entirely with that rating is a matter of perspective. What is less debatable is that measurable progress has occurred.
The task ahead is to sustain momentum, consolidate gains, and ensure that the improvements recorded thus far evolve into lasting security stability.
The journey is far from complete. Yet, for the first time in many years, the indicators suggest that Nigeria’s security institutions are gradually moving from crisis response to strategic control.
And in national security, that transition matters.
