Three Years of Laying Solid Bricks for a Competitive, Productive Sugar Industry
By Kabir ABDULSALAM,
Every morning, millions of Nigerians stir sugar into their tea, mix it into pap, bake bread and pastries, or consume it in drinks produced by local factories. It is such an ordinary part of daily life that few people stop to consider where the sugar comes from.
Undoubtedly, Nigeria has the land, climate and agricultural potential to produce much more of the sugar it consumes, but domestic production has struggled to keep pace with demand.
The contradiction extends beyond household consumption. It touches agriculture, industrial investment, employment, rural livelihoods and the country’s dependence on imports. For years, successive efforts to develop the industry have sought to bridge the gap between Nigeria’s agricultural potential and its actual output. The challenge has been to create the conditions under which sugarcane can be cultivated, processed and supplied consistently by local producers.
It is against this backdrop that Mr. Kamar Bakrin assumed leadership of the National Sugar Development Council (NSDC) in October 2023, following his appointment by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Nearly three years into his tenure, the question is how far the Council has moved beyond policy ambition towards building an industry capable of meeting a greater share of Nigeria’s sugar demand.
One of Mr. Bakrin’s major priorities has been strengthening the implementation of the Backward Integration Programme, which requires sugar refiners to invest in domestic sugar production. Under the revised enforcement approach, the Council is linking import-quota privileges to production commitments and deploying physical inspections and satellite imagery to verify activities at project sites.
The strategy addresses a longstanding weakness in the industry: ensuring that the benefits of sugar imports translate into investments in local agriculture and processing. Its effectiveness, however, will ultimately depend on transparent enforcement and measurable growth in domestic output.
Financing is another critical part of the agenda. The Council has announced a $1 billion engineering, procurement, construction and financing agreement with China’s SINOMACH, alongside a ₦10 billion Sugar Project Acceleration Fund established with the Bank of Industry. The fund is intended to support feasibility studies and project preparation, helping proposed estates become attractive to investors.
These initiatives could help address the difficulty of financing capital-intensive sugar projects. But financing agreements and project-preparation funds should not be confused with money fully disbursed or factories already producing sugar. Their significance will become clearer as projects secure funding, commence construction and move towards commercial operations.
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The scale of the ambition became more evident in October 2026, when the NSDC unveiled 10 proposed greenfield sugar projects across eight states. The Council estimates that the estates could produce 835,000 metric tonnes of sugar annually at full capacity, with 143,478 hectares of land secured and credible project promoters identified.
The projects form part of a broader $7.1 billion, 10-year development programme designed to raise annual domestic production beyond two million metric tonnes. If delivered alongside improvements at existing estates and expansions by established operators, the programme could substantially reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported sugar. For now, however, the projected output remains a target rather than realised production.
Mr. Bakrin’s approach also recognises that industrial expansion cannot depend on large investors alone. Through the Sugarcane Outgrower Development Programme, the Council is targeting 11,000 hectares for farmer-grown sugarcane around existing mills. By October, 7,000 hectares had been identified with partners in Kwara, Niger and Adamawa states.
The initiative could create more opportunities for smallholder farmers by connecting them to processors, technical support and reliable markets. Its success will depend on how much land is actually cultivated, the yields farmers achieve and the volume of cane delivered to mills.
Research and technical expertise are equally important. Through the Nigeria Sugar Institute in Ilorin, the Council has reported investments in laboratory facilities, sugarcane varieties and professional training. Such capacity is essential to improving planting materials, agricultural productivity and the technical skills required to operate modern sugar estates.
These interventions reflect a broader understanding of the industry: sustainable production requires more than factories. It depends on reliable raw-material supplies, suitable land, water, skilled workers, patient capital and effective institutions working together.
Yet the scale of the challenge remains considerable. Nigeria consumes approximately 1.8 million metric tonnes of sugar annually, while domestic production supplies only a small fraction of demand. The gap represents a substantial market opportunity, but capturing it will require projects to move from planning to implementation and from implementation to sustained commercial production.
Mr. Bakrin’s first three years have therefore been marked by efforts to strengthen regulatory oversight, mobilise investment, develop new estates, involve farmers and rebuild technical capacity. These are important foundations that have moved the country closer to self-sufficiency like never before.
For Mr. Bakrin and his team, the decisive milestone will not be another ambitious production target or investment announcement. It will be the steady arrival of more locally grown sugarcane at functioning mills, increased domestic output and reduced reliance on imports.
That is the test against which Bakrin’s leadership will ultimately be measured: not simply what the Council has planned, but how much sugar Nigeria can produce from its own soil.
Kabir ABDULSALAM is a Public Affiar analyst, is an author of ‘Impactful PR in Custom Management’ can be reached via: [email protected]
