POLITICAL PULSE: DSS Arrest, Kaduna Backlash Reshape Political Sentiment as APC Negativity Soars, NDC Gains
The PRNigeria PRrev analysis shows APC retaining the largest share of political conversation at 41.1%, but negative sentiment surging after the Kaduna campaign aftermath; NDC rises to 28% visibility and strengthens its lead as the most positively rated party at 72%
ABUJA: The reported arrest of NDC mobiliser Rilwan Olawale by the DSS and continuing fallout from APC’s Kaduna campaign flag-off dramatically reshaped Nigeria’s monitored political conversation on 25 October, as APC retained the largest media presence but suffered a steep deterioration in public-facing sentiment measured by PRrev.
Political Pulse is based on PRrev, a PRNigeria media-monitoring and sentiment data tool that tracks political activities, coverage and sentiment across monitored media platforms.
The latest Daily Political Pulse, based on PRrev’s monitoring of 4,743 in-scope items across X, Facebook and mainstream media, found APC leading political-party coverage with 41.1%, but also recording the highest overall negative sentiment at 59.7%. NDC, meanwhile, expanded its share of coverage to 28.0% and consolidated its position as the party with the strongest positive sentiment, reaching 72.0%.
The findings represent a striking turnaround from 24 October, when the Kaduna flag-off drove APC to 67.3% of pooled coverage and improved the party’s sentiment ratings. Within a day, the campaign’s aftermath had become a major source of negative conversation, while political attention around the reported DSS arrest and NDC activities boosted the opposition party’s visibility and favourable sentiment.
DSS Arrest Drives NDC Conversation
The report identifies the reported DSS arrest of NDC mobiliser Rilwan Olawale as the leading issue driving the day.
According to PRrev, the arrest was reported to have occurred at 1 a.m. in Lagos over an NDC flag, followed by a march to the DSS office. The biggest-reach post monitored during the period was also related to the arrest, attracting 182,939 views and classified by PRrev as positive for NDC. These are reported claims captured by the monitoring exercise rather than independently verified findings.
The arrest narrative coincided with other NDC activities, including an Abuja one-million-man march and political activity involving Obi in Obosi. PRrev also recorded the party’s third NEC meeting, campaign-council unveiling and new secretariat among its political calendar items for Monday, 26 October.
Together, these developments helped expand NDC’s share of political coverage from 16.1% on 24 October to 28.0% on 25 October.
Kaduna Celebration Turns into APC Sentiment Headache
While the Kaduna campaign flag-off had boosted APC’s profile a day earlier, its aftermath produced a markedly different sentiment picture.
PRrev identified the continuing “Ba ma yi” booing clip, reactions attributed to VeryDarkMan, rented-crowd and AI-photo claims, and the Umahi microphone incident among the issues driving the post-rally conversation.
The shift was pronounced on X.
APC’s positive X sentiment plunged from 38% on 24 October to 11% on 25 October, while its negative share climbed from 43% to 63%. PRrev attributes the change to the aftermath of Kaduna replacing supporters’ live posts as a dominant part of the political conversation.
The contrast illustrates one of the central findings of this Political Pulse: high political visibility can quickly become reputational exposure when the dominant conversation turns negative.
PRrev Political Party Rating | 25 October
1st in Visibility: APC
41.1% share of pooled coverage | 59.7% overall negative sentiment
APC remained Nigeria’s most discussed political party in PRrev’s dataset, generating 1,746 X items, 172 Facebook items and 33 mainstream-media items. But its leadership in volume coincided with the worst overall sentiment, particularly the 63% negative rating on X.
1st in Positive Sentiment: NDC
28.0% share of pooled coverage | 72.0% overall positive sentiment
NDC combined increased visibility with the strongest favourable sentiment of the parties monitored. Its X coverage was 75% positive, 12% negative and 13% fair.
ADC: 16.0% Share of Coverage
ADC generated 657 X items, 97 Facebook items and five mainstream items. Its X sentiment was considerably more balanced than the previous day, with 18% positive, 22% negative and 60% fair.
PDP: 14.9% Share of Coverage
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PDP’s visibility increased sharply, accounting for 14.9% of pooled coverage, compared with 4.3% on 24 October. Its 630 X items were predominantly classified as fair or neutral, at 71%, compared with 18% positive and 11% negative.
NDC Leads Sentiment Race
The strongest positive numbers of the day belonged to NDC.
On X, 75% of NDC coverage was positive, compared with only 12% negative. On Facebook, its conversation was 39% positive, 4% negative and 57% fair. Overall, PRrev placed its positive sentiment at 72.0%, up from 66.8% on 24 October.
This means that NDC did not merely gain political attention. Within PRrev’s methodology, the party simultaneously increased its share of the conversation while strengthening its overall positive-sentiment rating.
APC displayed an important platform divide. Despite the severe negative pressure on X, its Facebook sentiment remained 40% positive against 32% negative, while mainstream coverage was considerably more favourable at 64% positive, 12% negative and 24% fair.
The divergence underscores how markedly political sentiment can vary between social-media conversation and mainstream coverage.
APC Loses Dominance as Rivals Gain Ground
The biggest structural change occurred in the distribution of political attention.
Total in-scope items surged from 2,786 on 24 October to 4,743 on 25 October, largely because activity on X increased from 2,235 to 4,267 items. Facebook declined from 478 to 428 and mainstream items fell from 73 to 48.
APC remained the biggest individual party, but its 67.3% share of coverage on 24 October plunged to 41.1%.
Its rivals moved in the opposite direction:
NDC: 16.1% → 28.0%
ADC: 12.3% → 16.0%
PDP: 4.3% → 14.9%
The result was a significantly more distributed political conversation than the previous day.
ADC Escapes the Negativity Lead
Another significant reversal involved ADC.
On 24 October, ADC recorded the highest overall negative sentiment at 58.6%, while 67% of its X conversation was negative. By 25 October, its X negativity had fallen dramatically to 22%.
PRrev says the shift occurred because APC’s attacks on Atiku were no longer the principal ADC story. The title of highest overall negative share consequently moved from ADC to APC, which recorded 59.7%.
North-West Remains the Political Hotspot
Despite the changing national conversation, North-West remained the report’s most prominent regional hotspot.
PRrev recorded 779 items around the Kaduna aftermath and developments involving Kano, Katsina and the Sokoto flag-off, assigning the zone a medium-high risk rating.
The North-Central recorded 310 items around the Abuja march, Wike and the FCT, and the NDC secretariat, while the South-West had 299 items involving the Lagos manifesto and drones and Rilwan Olawale. Both zones were rated medium risk.
PRrev Political Pulse
The defining story of 25 October is a reversal in political momentum.
APC still won the visibility contest, but the post-Kaduna conversation transformed much of that visibility into negative exposure. Its share of the political conversation dropped by more than 26 percentage points in a day, while its X negativity climbed to 63%. 1
NDC achieved the strongest combination of rising visibility and positive sentiment. It increased its share of coverage to 28.0% while pushing its overall positive rating to 72.0%, the highest of the four parties.
PDP recorded a substantial increase in visibility but remained largely associated with fair or neutral X coverage, while ADC benefited from a sharp reduction in the negative X sentiment it experienced a day earlier.
Political Pulse Verdict
APC retains the visibility crown but suffers the day’s biggest reputational setback; NDC emerges as the strongest sentiment performer, combining a rising share of attention with the highest positive rating; PDP rebounds in visibility, while ADC records the sharpest improvement in negative X sentiment.
The 25 October PRrev findings reinforce an increasingly important distinction in the Political Pulse: winning attention is not necessarily winning perception. APC remained the most visible party at 41.1%, but NDC’s 72.0% positive rating gave it the clear advantage in favourable sentiment.
Daily Political Pulse is based on findings in PRrev Political Parties Report Summary of 25 October, 2026 Allegations, arrests crowd claims and other contested political assertions are reported as narratives captured by PRrev’s media-monitoring exercise and are not presented here as independently verified facts.
