FACT‑CHECK: Did Tony Elumelu Really Say Nigeria Lost 97% of Its Oil to Theft Before Tinubu?
CLAIM
A viral graphic circulating on WhatsApp and other social platforms claims that Nigeria was losing 97% of its oil production to theft before President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in 2023, but now retains 98% of its production. The quote is attributed to businessman and Chairman of Heirs Holdings, Tony Elumelu.
The graphic reads: “We were losing 97% of our oil production to theft before Tinubu reforms; now we retain 98% and have unlimited access to dollars. I’m not a politician; I can tell the truth.”
The claim has generated widespread reactions, with many users interpreting it as a national statistic.
BACKGROUND
Crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism have long undermined Nigeria’s petroleum sector, especially in the Niger Delta. Before 2023, several operators reported severe losses due to theft and pipeline insecurity.
Tony Elumelu’s company, Heirs Energies, which operates OML 17, had publicly complained about massive crude losses on its asset. The resurfaced graphic appears amid renewed debate on the Tinubu administration’s reforms and oil production recovery.
VERIFICATION
PRNigeria reviewed the viral graphic, searched for the exact quote across news archives, social media, and reports from the event where Elumelu allegedly spoke.
- Authenticity of the Quote
PRNigeria confirmed that Tony Elumelu did make the statement, but not recently. The remarks were made on July 25, 2025, during President Tinubu’s meeting with the Association of Power Generation Companies (GENCOs) at the Presidential Villa.
Elumelu said: “Before you took office in 2023, we lost 97% of our daily oil production. Today, we are retaining 98%. That’s transformation.”
The statement was reported by multiple mainstream media outlets and supported by video footage from the event.
- Was Nigeria Losing 97% of National Oil Production?
PRNigeria examined national crude oil loss data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Read Also:
- 2022: Nigeria lost 20.9 million barrels (~4.26% of production)
- 2023: Losses dropped to 4.3 million barrels (~0.94%)
- 2024: Losses further declined to 4.1 million barrels (~0.85%)
- Jan–July 2025: Losses stood at 2.04 million barrels (~0.65%)
These figures do not support the claim that Nigeria as a whole was losing 97% of its crude oil production.
- Company‑Level vs National Data
A critical review of Elumelu’s speech shows he was referring to Heirs Energies’ experience on OML 17, not Nigeria’s national production.
Heirs Energies had previously reported extremely high theft‑related losses on its pipeline network, with only a small fraction of crude reaching the terminal. By 2023, the company reported significant improvement.
Thus, the 97% figure relates to Heirs Energies’ operations, not Nigeria’s total crude production.
- “Unlimited Access to Dollars” Claim
Elumelu did commend improved access to foreign exchange under Tinubu’s reforms, noting businesses no longer needed personal connections at the CBN.
However, he did not say companies now have “unlimited access to dollars.” The phrase is a headline-style exaggeration in the viral graphic.
Access to FX remains subject to documentation, market conditions, and regulatory rules.
- Graphic Examination
PRNigeria reviewed the viral image for signs of digital manipulation. It appears to be a standard social‑media design with text and Elumelu’s photo. There is no evidence of AI fabrication. The underlying quote is verifiable from the 2025 event.
CONCLUSION
Tony Elumelu did make the statement, but:
- He was referring to his company’s crude losses, not Nigeria’s national production.
- National data does not support the claim that Nigeria lost 97% of its crude oil before 2023.
- The “unlimited access to dollars” phrase is not his exact wording.
- The viral graphic presents a true quote in a misleading context, causing misinterpretation.
VERDICT: Misleading
By PRNigeria
