POLITICAL PULSE: NDC’s ‘Rig and Die’ Trend, APC’s Calabar Rally Shake Political Ratings as NDC Tops Negative Sentiment
The NDC-linked “rig and die” trend and APC’s Calabar rally drove Nigeria’s monitored political conversation on 2 November, reversing the previous day’s visibility and sentiment leadership as NDC surged to 44% of pooled coverage but recorded the highest overall negative sentiment at 38%. APC slipped to second in visibility at 37.2% but emerged as the most positively rated party at 27.8%, while ADC and PDP ranked third and fourth at 9.5% and 9.3%, respectively, according to PRrev.
The Daily Political Pulse is based on PRrev, a PRNigeria media-monitoring and sentiment data tool that tracks political activities, media coverage and sentiment across monitored platforms. PRrev analysed 5,529 in-scope items, up from 4,379 on 1 November, with the NDC-linked trend, APC’s Calabar rally and the continuing electricity-tariff exchange driving the changing political and sentiment rankings.
PRrev says the “rig and die” trend was driven by NDC members and mostly coded negative for NDC because of threats, incitement of violence and hate speech. APC’s Calabar rally, meanwhile, featured Vice-President Kashim Shettima seeking renewed mandates for President Bola Tinubu and Governor Bassey Otu, alongside a presidential promise of a deep seaport.
Other major drivers included Atiku Abubakar’s electricity-tariff pledge, preparations for ADC’s Sokoto campaign flag-off, conflicting reports over a South-West revolt against Atiku Abubakar, and NDC political activities involving Peter Obi in Bayelsa and Gwarzo in Kano.
‘Rig and Die’ Trend Drives NDC to Visibility Lead
The “rig and die” trend produced one of the most dramatic shifts in PRrev’s recent party ratings, helping NDC rise from 32% of pooled coverage on 1 November to 44% on 2 November and displace APC as the most visible party.
But the increase in attention came with significant negative exposure.
PRrev says the trend was driven by NDC members and was mostly coded negative for the party because the monitored conversation contained threats, incitement of violence and hate speech.
NDC consequently recorded the highest overall negative sentiment at 38%, taking over that position from APC, which had recorded the highest negative share on 1 November.
The effect was particularly pronounced on X. Of 2,260 NDC posts, 41% were negative, 28% positive and 31% fair.
Its 15 mainstream stories were also more negative than positive, with 53% negative and 47% positive. Facebook presented the opposite picture, with 44% positive, just 2% negative and 54% fair.
The numbers present the day’s clearest example of the distinction between political visibility and favourable sentiment: NDC was discussed more than any other party, but much of the conversation driving that surge was negative.
APC Calabar Rally Lifts Positive Sentiment
While NDC captured the largest volume of attention, APC’s Calabar rally helped the ruling party emerge as the day’s leader in positive sentiment.
At the rally, Vice-President Kashim Shettima asked Cross River voters to renew the mandates of President Bola Tinubu and Governor Bassey Otu, while President Bola Tinubu promised a deep seaport. PRrev also recorded posts highlighting empty seats at the rally and coded them negative.
APC generated 1,801 X posts, 204 Facebook items and 52 mainstream stories, amounting to 37.2% of pooled political-party coverage.
Although that represented a fall from 42.9% on 1 November and cost APC the visibility crown, the party recorded PRrev’s highest overall positive sentiment at 27.8%.
The ruling party produced its strongest platform result in mainstream media, where 67% of its 52 stories were positive and 33% negative. Facebook was 46% positive, 5% negative and 49% fair.
On X, where the party’s largest conversation occurred, APC recorded 25% positive, 22% negative and 53% fair sentiment.
PRrev Political Party Rating | 2 November
1st in Visibility, Highest Negative Sentiment: NDC
44% pooled coverage | 38% overall negative sentiment
NDC overtook APC after increasing its share from 32% to 44%. But the “rig and die” trend pushed the party to the highest overall negative rating, with 41% of its X conversation classified as negative.
1st in Positive Sentiment, 2nd in Visibility: APC
37.2% pooled coverage | 27.8% overall positive sentiment
APC lost the visibility crown but became the party with the highest overall positive share, supported by its Calabar rally and campaign councils. Its mainstream coverage was 67% positive.
3rd in Visibility: ADC
9.5% pooled coverage
ADC narrowly overtook PDP for third place. Its conversation included preparations for the 4 November Sokoto flag-off and reports of a South-West revolt against Atiku Abubakar, which PRrev says was reported and denied.
4th in Visibility: PDP
9.3% pooled coverage
PDP registered the smallest share of pooled coverage. Its X conversation was predominantly fair at 67%, while Facebook was 59% fair.
Electricity-Tariff Battle Keeps Policy in Focus
The dispute over President Bola Tinubu’s electricity pledge carried into a second day, this time focusing on electricity tariffs.
Atiku Abubakar said APC could not rewrite President Bola Tinubu’s pledge and promised to scrap the five-band electricity tariff system, while APC defended its record.
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The exchange remained one of the report’s five key political drivers, demonstrating that policy performance remained a prominent campaign issue alongside party rallies and social-media trends.
ADC Edges PDP as Sokoto Flag-Off Approaches
ADC generated 453 X posts, 61 Facebook items and 11 mainstream-media reports, giving it a 9.5% share of pooled coverage and third place in the visibility ranking.
The party’s Sokoto flag-off was scheduled for 4 November, while the reported revolt by its South-West leaders against Atiku Abubakar featured in the political conversation. PRrev notes that the revolt was both reported and denied.
ADC’s X conversation was predominantly fair at 61%, with 24% positive and 15% negative. Facebook recorded 43% positive, 8% negative and 49% fair.
Its 11 mainstream stories produced the strongest platform-specific positive rating recorded for any party during the day, with 73% positive and 27% negative.
That mainstream result, however, came from a substantially smaller sample than ADC’s X coverage.
PDP Falls to Fourth as Neutral Coverage Dominates
PDP’s share of political-party coverage fell sharply from 12.9% on 1 November to 9.3% on 2 November, pushing it into fourth place behind ADC.
The party recorded 375 X items, 130 Facebook posts and nine mainstream stories.
Most of its social-media conversation was classified as fair. On X, the breakdown was 17% positive, 16% negative and 67% fair, while Facebook recorded 36% positive, 5% negative and 59% fair.
PDP’s smaller mainstream sample was more favourable, with 56% positive, 33% negative and 11% fair.
Obi in Bayelsa, Gwarzo Claim Add to NDC Attention
NDC’s visibility surge was not driven solely by the negative “rig and die” trend.
PRrev also recorded Peter Obi riding an Ijaw war boat in Bayelsa, while Seriake Dickson attacked Governor Douye Diri.
The day’s highest-reach post came from @Dee_9889 and involved Ozonna joining the NDC campaign-song challenge. It attracted 117,480 views and was classified as positive for NDC.
In Kano, Gwarzo accused the state government of plotting to exclude him. The report presents the matter as an allegation and does not establish the alleged plot as fact.
Together, these developments contributed to a complex sentiment picture in which NDC generated both significant favourable engagement and the greatest volume of negative political conversation.
Political Conversation Surges to 5,529 Items
The overall volume of political-party conversation rose sharply from 4,379 items on 1 November to 5,529 on 2 November.
The latest monitoring comprised 4,889 X posts, 553 Facebook items and 87 mainstream-media reports.
The party standings changed significantly:
NDC: 32% → 44%, moving from second to first.
APC: 42.9% → 37.2%, falling from first to second.
ADC: 12.2% → 9.5%, moving into third despite losing share.
PDP: 12.9% → 9.3%, dropping from third to fourth.
The sentiment leadership also completely reversed: APC replaced NDC as the party with the highest overall positive share, while NDC replaced APC as the party with the highest negative share.
North-West Remains Highest-Risk Zone
The North-West retained the highest regional risk classification at medium-high, with 491 items involving the Sokoto flag-off, Gwarzo in Kano and political developments in Katsina and Zamfara.
The South-South generated the greatest volume, at 528 items, driven by the Calabar rally and political developments in Bayelsa, Delta and Rivers, although PRrev assessed the zone’s risk as medium.
North-Central, South-West and South-East were also classified as medium risk, while North-East remained low.
PRrev Political Pulse
The defining feature of 2 November was a dramatic reversal in both political visibility and sentiment leadership.
NDC surged from 32% to 44% of pooled coverage, overtaking APC as Nigeria’s most visible political party in PRrev’s monitoring. But the “rig and die” trend driving much of the conversation was predominantly negative, leaving NDC with the highest overall negative sentiment at 38%.
APC experienced the reverse. Its share of political conversation declined from 42.9% to 37.2%, costing it first place in visibility, but the Calabar rally and campaign-council conversation helped the ruling party secure the highest overall positive sentiment at 27.8%.
ADC and PDP both lost share, but ADC’s 9.5% was enough to push it narrowly into third place ahead of PDP at 9.3%.
Political Pulse Verdict
NDC wins the visibility contest but suffers the day’s greatest reputational pressure as the “rig and die” trend pushes its negative sentiment to 38%. APC’s Calabar rally helps the ruling party take the positive-sentiment crown at 27.8% despite losing the visibility lead. ADC edges into third place, while PDP falls to fourth amid predominantly fair coverage.
The 2 November findings offer a particularly stark illustration of the distinction between visibility and favourability. NDC attracted the most political attention but also the highest negative share; APC attracted substantially less coverage than NDC but achieved the day’s strongest overall positive rating.
Political Pulse is based on PRrev, a PRNigeria media-monitoring and sentiment data tool that tracks political activities, media coverage and sentiment across monitored platforms. This edition draws from PRrev Political Parties Report Summary (November 02, 2026). Statements concerning the reported ADC South-West revolt and Gwarzo’s allegation against the Kano government are presented as political narratives monitored by PRrev and not as independently established facts.
By PRNigeria
