Tackling Imminent ECOWAS-Niger Military Confrontation

Tackling Imminent ECOWAS-Niger Military Confrontation
By Col Abdulrasheed Akewushola (Rtd)

… ” war is too important to be left to the generals.”
George Clemenceau

” National Security is much too serious to leave entirely to civilians,” John M. Collins

PREAMBLE

1. The thematic analogy of how to send out a goat that enters a *China Plates’ Shop* or *Eggs’ Shop* perfectly explains the imminent military Confrontation of ECOWAS and Niger. The application of wisdom is key in this bizarre phenomenon.

2. War is complex, and this is why George Clemenceau posited that … *”war is too important to be left to the generals.* J.M. Collins in Military Strategy put up a corollary to this that: ” *National Security is much too serious to leave entirely to civilians,* ” because political-military affairs are intertwined in peace time as well as in war. The wittism of Clemenceau is not only succinctly very apt and auspicious to this analysis, but also the corollary as espoused by J.M. Collins.

3. A rider to the position of the duo is that both the politicians and military high command must engage in a robust conversation and rigorous analysis gleaning from wide perspectives and consultations, with everyone coming out of their cocoons to analyse issues with all objectivity and seriousness of purpose devoid of sentiments, and drawing from inferences of many factors with compulsive patriotism before taking a position: *To go to War.*

4. War is a serious matter of the state with grave consequences. It goes beyond bragaddacio bereft of requisite *men, materiel, resources, and the readiness of all elements of state power* to be deployed when the time comes for the nation to go to war.

AIM

5. The aim is to highlight the implication of imminent *ECOWAS/Niger* Military Confrontation with a view to stimulating a robust conversation on why a military option is a perilous path for *ECOWAS* to take.

THE COUP IN NIGER

6. Military rule is not only an aberration but also a breach of *Social Contract* entered into by the people. It is abominable, condemnable and treasonable in its entirety. There is no justification to support military rule, but then jubilation of people afterwards is a message to the *ECOWAS* ‘ leaders that one may surmise the jubilation is a confirmation of bad governance. It behoves *ECOWAS* to interrogate the remote and immediate courses of the putsch.

7. *The lesson here is* : In a democracy, leaders must reciprocate the trust reposed in them through the electoral process to play politics by the rule, uphold rules of law as the bastion of democracy, spread contentment, ensure dividends of democracy get to the people, and eschew corruption.

8. Not only the foregoing, but also politicians must be seen with propensity and avidity to serve and apparently devoid of disposition for pecuniary gain or self aggrandizement. Further, politicians’ loyalty to the state, compulsive patriotism, and commitment to the welfare of the citizenry must not be in doubt. Espousing all these are panacea to any coup and counter coups, and the people will rise to defend democracy and pursue military back to barracks.

THE ECOWAS RESPONSE TO COUP IN NIGER

9. The *ECOWAS* heads of governments’ response to the ousting of democratically elected president of Niger through military intervention triggered the face-off between Nigeria and Niger. The insinuation or rumour making the rounds is Nigeria is going to war with Niger.

CITIZENS AND SOCIAL CONTRACT

10. Self-preservation is the first law of nature. Human civilization evolved through many stages of evolution. Getting man out of the state of nature, where life was brutish to the state of peace, where his personal security is guaranteed, was achieved through social contract. The proponents of *Social Contract* , like *John Locke* and others, created the state for the purpose of preserving ‘ *life, liberty, and estate’.*

11. The state so formed looks at itself as sovereign and sees itself in its International Relations as striving to attain its *National Interest* (or policy ) of security, power, wealth, prestige etc. States use means at their disposal, though not exclusively, but includes use of war to achieve National interests.

CONCEPTUAL CLARIFICATION OF NATIONAL INTEREST

12. In order to put this small piece in its proper perspective, it is germane to give conceptual clarification to *National Interest* as it is at the core of this discourse.

13. *National Interest* is the concept that is driven by the need to survive and prosper by any nation. Therefore, this concept is at the very heart of diplomatic and military professions, and it helps in the formulation of national strategy and the calculation of the needed power to pursue that strategy. National Interest may be classified as core or vital, ‘higher-prized’ negotiable, and lower-prized ‘negotiable’. Location may be used to classify as locally or regionally situated or a more general or global location. Further, it can be ranked as *Strategic, Political, Economic, Legal and Ideological.*

NATIONAL INTEREST AND INCOMPATIBLE GOALS OF OTHER NATIONS

14. It will be foolhardy to trust any nation when it comes to pursuance of National Interest. No nation will tell others her interest at any point in time. This is the reason why nations are out there in pursuit of their various incompatible goals. They are ready to go to war to achieve their interests.

NORMALITY OF WAR IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

15. In international relations or politics among nations, there are bound to be clashes of interests between two states. This is a common phenomenon as virtually all states’ interests are always incompatible. These are typically resolved by the imposition of the will of one state upon that of another. The disagreement of the imposition of this will is the root of war. However, this is the last resort. Therefore, war is a normal phase in the relation amongst states or politics amongst nations.

STATECRAFTS

16. The citizens elect leaders purposefully to engage in the management of the statescraft and well-being of the citizens. The statecraft is skilful management of state affairs. These affairs include taking hard decisions on our national interest and formulation and management of public and foreign policies. Foreign policies emanate from our national interest.


NIGERIA PRESENT POSITION OF DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS

17. Nigeria is the arrowhead in the *ECOWAS* Military intervention in Niger. The propaganda making the rounds is Nigeria is invading Niger. Nigeria must discountenance this insinuation and continue on the part of diplomatic pressures, entreties, and overtures on *the imminent ECOWAS/Niger Military Confrontation.* It is the laudable path she can take to call the bluff of the **Western Interest”* and given the behind the scene of *Russia interest* in the area, in particular, and Africa in general.

GLOBAL DISEQUILIBRIUM BALANCE OF POWER

18. It must be emphasised that what is playing out in Africa is the apparent shift in balance of power and global power disequilibrium, with Russia sticking her neck to make a statement that she is not a pushover nation in the whole paradigm and equilibrium shift of world power equation, and politics amongst nations and the struggle for supremacy by world powers.

19. The situation in *Russia/Ukraine War* is just instructive enough for us to learn a lesson. A strategic analyst, with perspicacity in gumption, should be able to read within the lines what is happening.

A LIKELY PROXY WAR THEATRE IN AFRICA

20. Africa may experience a *Proxy War Theatre* if the issue on the ground is not deeply and sensibly managed and must be resisted not to be allowed to escalate. Nigeria must be careful not to be disgraced as *David and Golliath* scenario is apparently imminent. Nigeria must resist the temptation. Anybody hailing us as *The Giant of Africa* or massaging our ego as *The African hegemon* is telling us a big lie. It is possible some nations that were part of this decision might not make good their promises.

THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA AND NIGER MILITARIES

21. Nigeria as the arrowhead must be used to plan or analyse just in case some members do not fulfill their obligations. A comparative analysis of Nigeria and Niger militaries is in disparity. The asymmetrical mismatch is in favour of Nigeria, no doubt. Unfortunately enough, Nigeria can not leverage her comparative advantage of a military decisive blow on Niger in view of military alliances that will happen when the situation escalates. Further, the unknown and openly declared allies like Algeria is a serious impediment to the asymmetric disparity in favour of Nigeria. It is pertinent to mention that the Algerian military is not a weak military in Africa. As I write, there is a military build-up to respond to any attack on Niger by *ECOWAS* .

THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF AFRICAN CONTINENT

22. It is a notorious fact that African resources are the reasons why the global powers are in Africa, and this has started since the advent of globalisation. The interest in Africa is in a state of flux, given *China,* *Russia* and others presence in all nooks and crannies of Africa. The present economic globalisation and partitioning of Africa through other means is a reality of our time. Nigeria must take this into account in all ramifications and analysis.

THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF URANIUM TO NUCLEAR NATIONS

23. The importance of *Uranium* metals in nuclear equations chemically is so important that without it, nobody gets anything of nuclear reaction. The issue on the ground is obviously *Uranium deposit* in Niger, and *Nuclear Powers* need this earnestly. So, Nigeria must thread carefully in all ramifications.

ECOMOG SUCCESS STORY OF THE 90s

24. Nobody should use our success story in *ECOMOG* years as a yardstick for Nigeria to lead *ECOWAS* to a military confrontation again as there has been a paradigm shift since then. The scenario then is completely at variance with present-day reality.

25. Any robust discourse or conversation will culminate into the conclusion that Nigeria can not afford to go to war, and anything outside this is a perilous path to take. If we ignore it, we will fail woefully.

26. Some questions are even germane about this. These include:
a. Did we achieve our mission in Liberia and Sierra Leone?
b. Did we leverage that in post Conflict economy of those nations?
c. Who bankrolled those *ECOMOG Operations* during that conflict?
d. If Nigeria must lead, who will pick the bills of the impending *ECOWAS Military Option?*
e. Where will the logistic replenishment come from, given that the war in the present era is *Cyber/High Tech* dependent?
f. Given the reality of possible *Land/Air Battle* is imminent, to what extent can we handle *Air Umbrella* that the adversary will deploy?
g. Are we prepared to contend with her armed *Unmanned Aerial Vehicles* and likely counter her *Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, just in case they are deployed* Or can we influence what our adversaries will use to fight us?
h. Can Nigeria fight or engage in a battle for a month on her own without a strategic ally of one of the world powers?
I. How long can we be in battle without assistance, just in case other ECOWAS members refuse to honour their obligations?
j. Can our economy sustain a protracted war as war is a complex issue that cannot be predicted.

27. It must be borne in mind that a strategist must use a *worst-case scenario* and many other veritable tools when analysing his *Grand Strategy.*

NIGERIAN MILITARY AND THE CONTEMPORARY SECURITY CHALLENGES

28. The Nigerian Military have been contending with contemporary security challenges manifesting in *Boko Haram insurgency and banditry.* Can the Nigerian Military as the direct responders of war be deployed as the arrowhead to lead *ECOWAS* to fight in Niger simultaneously with her primary assignment at home without being overstretched? That aside, have the citizens mood been properly gauged?

NIGERIA FOREIGN POLICY

29. Nigeria Foreign Policy has always been woven or shaped around *Afrocentricm and pan-Africanism* , but then we must not lose sight of our national interest and the interest of others and their incompatible goals, whilst also not forgetting the interest of world powers in all nooks and crannies of African soil. Nigeria should not forget her ” *Non Interference in the Internal Affairs of other Nations”* principle in a hurry. The political masters should be able to convince Nigeria the strategic importance of our national interest that being part of a coalition will achieve for us.

NIGERIA ECONOMIC SITUATION AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN

30. Nigeria economy is bleeding profusely, and it is not in isolation or insulated from the global economic meltdown of the world emanating from the *Post Covid 19 Pandemic and Russia/Ukraine war.* The impact of this in Nigeria today and domestic economic crunch sequel to the removal of fuel subsidy can not be overemphasised. Nigerians are not finding life interesting due to this economic reality. This accounts for cries for palliative measures to mitigate this effect. It will be too much of a burden to add the effect of war to the citizens’ predicament.

31. Gleaning from the experience of what the Russians and Ukrainians are facing is instructive enough to infer that life will be tough if Nigeria goes to war, albeit as part of coalition. It is needless to tell anyone this hard fact.

32. Nigeria took economic decision to construct *Katsina/Maradi Railway line* to leverage Niger’s landlocked country logistic import and freighting from *Lagos Port* . So, what happens to that investment and the electricity supply to that country running into millions of dollars annually in favour of Nigeria?

33. It is a notorious fact that the Nigerian economy is not robust enough presently and cannot be deployed to simultaneously prosecute insecurity emanating from non-state actors and leading *ECOWAS* to restore democracy through military efforts. What happens when Nigeria crosses the Rubicon, and these *ECOWAS* nations refuse to honour their obligations?

NIGER AS A STRATEGIC PARTNER

34. Niger shares a contiguous landmass of more than 1600km stretching along the Northern boundaries. She has not been a troublous or hostile neighbour and has been a reliable strategic partner in the fight against insurgents. This past and existing relationship can not be wished away.

35. The aftermath of military confrontation can be predicted to culminate into an unprecedented humanitarian crisis along the contiguous states like *Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara,* and others. All these points are essential for any strategic analysts and planners to put into consideration when analysing *Grand Strategic National Security issues* that may shape going to war. In addition to this, there are many Nigerians who ran away to escape the vagaries of banditry and Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria contiguous states with Niger.

LEADERSHIP AND SUBORDINATE DISPOSITION TO GRAND STRATEGIC ISSUE

36. Leaders are meant to take tough decisions devoid of sentiments. Unfortunately enough, in practice, leaders are surrounded by some sycophantic subordinates who do not want to lose relevance in the corridor of power. They read the mood and body language of leaders to situate the situation and use that to conclude their analysis.

37. In essence, they know the answer before bringing relevant questions to suit the situation. People like these are dangerous to leaders. It behoves leaders to subject issues to content and context analysis while bearing in mind that these are not only germane but also must be subjected to rigorous and robust analysis while ensuring pertinent issues are devoid of sentiments or whose ox is gored.

A LACUNA IN THE STRATEGIC DOCTRINE TO DEPLOY THE NIGERIAN ARMED FORCES FOR COMBAT OVERSEAS IN PURSUANCE OF FOREIGN POLICY ISSUE

38. The Armed Forces of Federal Republic of Nigeria (AFRN) does not have a written Doctrine that guides the deployment of the armed forces for combat outside the shore of Nigeria, especially, in pursuance of Nigerian Foreign Policy. It is at the whims and caprices of Mr President. This is not healthy enough for a nation to checkmate abuse of power and the necessity for checks and balances. This should not be misconstrued with peace keeping operations.

39. An issue of this magnitude is long overdue. The hues and cries over the *ECOWAS* military intervention in Niger brought to the fore of this gap of our national life. Nigeria can adapt The *Weiberger Doctrine* , which guides the USA’s deployment of forces for combat overseas. You may wish to acquaint yourself with the jists of *The Weiberger Doctrine* which is rendered as an *Appendix* to this small piece.

CONCLUSION

40. This small piece has sought to wet the appetite of scholars, public policy analysts, strategic thinkers and policy makers to stimulate or provoke conversation on why military option is a perilous path to take to restore democracy back in Niger Republic.

41. The piece has highlighted some issues, which are by no means exhaustive, of strategic importance bothering on emphasis on diplomatic route to follow to restore democracy in Niger Republic.

42. The writer opines that a diplomatic route is the best option to settle this matter. Otherwise, the parasitic world powers will turn Africa into a *Proxy War Theatre.* Given that Nigeria cannot convince anyone her strategic interest on this issue, then she must not allow herself to be used as one of the pencils in the hands of the world powers’ artists.

While appreciating and welcoming constructive criticisms, I take all responsibilities for all errors on this small piece.

Colonel Rasheed A Akewushola mni (Rtd)
[email protected]