Looming Peril Ahead of 2027: Why Nigeria Must Act Now
By MUKHTAR Ya’u Madobi
In less than two years, Nigerians will once again throng polling units nationwide to elect leaders who will steer the country’s affairs for another four years, beginning in 2027.
Yet, as the nation inches toward this crucial general election, it stands precariously balanced between the promise of democratic consolidation and the threat of descending into political chaos.
The lessons of our electoral history are vivid and sobering. From the post-election violence of 2011, which claimed countless innocent lives, to the judicial controversies of 2023 that reaffirmed the victory of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s democratic journey has been repeatedly tested.
These experiences have left deep political and social scars — and the warning signs for 2027 are already flashing in alarming red. The political temperature is steadily rising.
Across the country, public discourse is becoming increasingly toxic, with inflammatory rhetoric dominating campaign platforms. Politicians, in their desperate bids for relevance and support, lean heavily on ethnic, religious, and regional sentiments to rally followers.
While such tactics energise partisan bases, they dangerously deepen national divisions at a time when Nigeria desperately needs unity, tolerance, and mutual understanding. Such polarisation becomes even more perilous when layered over the harsh realities of everyday life.
Unemployment remains painfully high, inflation continues to erode purchasing power, and poverty levels are worsening. For millions of frustrated youths, this economic despair makes them vulnerable to political manipulation — and for desperate politicians, they are an easily accessible pool for recruitment into violent thuggery.
The danger is compounded by Nigeria’s fragile security landscape. The North-East still battles insurgency, the North-West is plagued by banditry, IPOB-linked unrest persists in the South-East, and the Middle Belt continues to witness deadly farmer-herder clashes.
Each flashpoint presents an opportunity for political actors to exploit tensions for electoral gain. For years, terrorists, insurgents, and other non-state actors have capitalised on insecurity and youth vulnerability to radicalise and recruit them into criminal networks — an asymmetric challenge that continues to overstretch security agencies and undermine stability.
Adding fuel to the fire is the proliferation of small arms and light weapons. Nigeria’s porous borders have allowed a steady influx of weapons from conflict zones in the Sahel and North Africa. According to the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, over 500 million illicit small arms circulate in West Africa, with Nigeria shockingly harbouring about 40 per cent of them.
These weapons empower bandits, ethnic militias, and terrorists, turning political disputes into deadly confrontations. Another critical concern is declining public trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Many Nigerians perceive the electoral body as beholden to those in power, undermining its credibility.
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Even technological reforms such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) have not fully erased public scepticism. Far too many citizens believe elections are decided in courtrooms rather than at the ballot box, a perception that fuels apathy and could incite unrest.
Compounding these threats is the toxic digital environment. While the internet and social media have created unprecedented avenues for civic engagement, they have also become breeding grounds for fake news, deepfake videos, and hate speech.
In a recent case, an AI-generated video falsely portrayed Nigerian soldiers escorting cattle in Benue State, a fragile security zone. Thankfully, a PRNigeria fact-check report swiftly debunked the content. Still, the speed at which disinformation spreads means a single lie could ignite violence within minutes.
Unfortunately, Nigeria’s early warning and rapid response systems remain weak, reactive, and often too slow to prevent predictable crises. Without proactive detection and coordinated intervention, electoral tensions could quickly escalate into national instability.
The road to a peaceful 2027 election demands a whole-of-society approach. Security agencies, political leaders, religious authorities, community heads, civil society organisations, the media, and ordinary citizens must work hand in hand.
Government must tackle the root causes of political violence by rolling out targeted economic relief and empowerment programmes, particularly for at-risk youth, to reduce their vulnerability to manipulation.
INEC must be adequately funded, granted full operational independence, and backed by tougher laws against vote-buying, hate speech, and political thuggery. A nationwide peace and unity campaign, championed by influential figures across all divides, should be launched well before the polls to discourage divisive politics.
Security agencies must take the lead with intelligence-driven policing, community surveillance, and swift neutralisation of threats. Coordination between the police, DSS, military, NSCDC, and local vigilantes should be seamless, with early mop-up of illegal arms and watertight protection of INEC staff, facilities, and election materials.
The Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), under Malam Nuhu Ribadu, has a pivotal role to play, especially in coordination and regulation. Electoral offenders — whether politicians, thugs, or complicit officials — must face swift, visible, and uncompromising justice to send an unmistakable message that violence will not be tolerated.
Ultimately, the responsibility for safeguarding Nigeria’s democracy rests with the people. Citizens, especially young Nigerians, must refuse to be used as pawns in political games. They must demand issue-based campaigns, fact-check information before sharing it online, and engage fully in the democratic process — from registration to peaceful voting — to ensure the will of the people prevails.
The 2027 elections are not just another electoral cycle; they are a test of whether Nigeria can emerge stronger, more united, and more democratic in the face of growing internal and external pressures. The dangers are real, but so are the opportunities to avert them.
Government, security agencies, and citizens must rise to the challenge — not as adversaries, but as co-stewards of Nigeria’s fragile democracy. The time to act is not in 2027. The time to act is now.
MUKHTAR Ya’u Madobi is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Crisis Communication. He writes via: [email protected]
