Banditry:Can Dialogue Bring Peace to Northwest Nigeria
The crises of banditry and kidnapping in Nigeria, particularly in the Northwest and Northcentral regions, continue to pose unprecedented security challenges. While some advocate for dialogue (*sulhu*) as a viable solution to mitigate the conflict, others question its feasibility, given the criminal nature of the perpetrators and the failures of previous attempts at negotiation. However, history has consistently shown that dialogue remains a powerful tool for conflict resolution, fostering reconciliation, healing, and lasting peace. This principle holds relevance even in addressing the scourge of banditry and kidnapping that has destabilized the northwestern part of Nigeria.
An inclusive and well-structured dialogue offers the potential for sustainable peace by breaking the cycle of violence and criminality. However, any renewed push for negotiations must be critically examined to determine its scope and intent. Is it a genuine pursuit of peace, or merely a tactical maneuver by criminal non-state actors seeking reprieve or financial gain? Past experiences suggest that dialogue initiatives must be carefully structured to avoid inadvertently legitimizing criminal elements or undermining the military’s commendable progress. Without a well-defined, enforceable framework, dialogue risks becoming a temporary palliative rather than a lasting solution.
### **The Scale of the Crisis**
For over a decade, banditry and kidnapping have ravaged communities across Nigeria, particularly in the Northwest, leaving a trail of devastation. The crisis has claimed thousands of lives, displaced countless populations, and crippled economic and social activities. Farming, commerce, education, and social cohesion have suffered immensely, while kidnapping for ransom has become a lucrative enterprise, entrenching a war economy.
The humanitarian catastrophe in Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Sokoto, and Zamfara States is staggering. Recent data paints a grim picture of the crisis. Between July 2023 and June 2024, Nigerians paid at least N1.048 billion in ransom to kidnappers, according to SBM Intelligence. Their research reveals that 7,568 individuals were abducted in 1,130 incidents during this period, with Kaduna, Katsina, and Zamfara States bearing the brunt. Disturbingly, kidnappings have become increasingly lethal, resulting in 1,056 deaths within these incidents.
Beacon Consult and Intelligence Limited further highlight the escalation of Nigeria’s security challenges in 2024, documenting a 38.16% rise in incidents (9,001), a 20.12% increase in fatalities (11,692), and a staggering 138.99% surge in abductions (9,677) nationwide. The Northwest and Northcentral regions remain disproportionately affected.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report titled *“The Crime Experienced and Security Perception Survey (CESPS) 2024”* reveals that between May 2023 and April 2024, 614,937 Nigerians were killed, while 2,235,954 were kidnapped nationwide. Over N2.2 trillion was paid as ransom, averaging N2.7 million per incident. The Northwest recorded the highest number of deaths (206,030), followed by the Northeast (188,992), while the Southwest had the least (15,693). These figures underscore the urgent need for comprehensive solutions.
### **The Push for Dialogue: Scepticism and Challenges**
Calls for dialogue were largely absent until recent military operations, particularly in Zamfara State, forced bandits onto the defensive. This sudden push for negotiations has been met with scepticism, as many perceive it as a desperate move by criminals facing imminent defeat rather than a genuine effort toward peace. The deep-seated distrust between affected communities and the government further complicates the process, with fears that dialogue could benefit perpetrators rather than victims.
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While some state governments, such as Kaduna, have initiated dialogue efforts with relative success, questions remain about their sustainability and scope. Previous attempts, like the amnesty programme championed by former Katsina State Governor Aminu Bello Masari, failed to achieve meaningful disarmament and allowed the cycle of violence to persist. Studies documented in the Nigerian Army Resource Centre (NARC) Journal and Ibrahim Katsina’s *“Katsina in Transition”* highlight these shortcomings, reinforcing doubts about negotiating with criminals.
One of the primary challenges of dialogue in the Northwest is the fragmented and fluid nature of criminal groups. Over 110 factions of bandits and kidnappers operate across the region, with some forming alliances with violent extremist groups like Boko Haram. Selective engagement risks exacerbating violence, as excluded groups may escalate attacks to assert relevance. Unlike ideologically driven insurgencies, banditry and kidnapping are primarily criminal enterprises, historically best addressed through law enforcement rather than negotiation.
### **Negotiating from a Position of Strength**
Negotiating from a position of strength is essential. Security forces have recently made significant gains, and initiating dialogue now could undermine their progress and demoralize troops. The Quranic verse (47:35) advising against seeking a truce when holding the upper hand reinforces this strategic concern. Additionally, the transborder operations of these criminal groups complicate the enforceability of any domestic peace agreement. Thus, while dialogue remains a valuable tool, its indiscriminate application could do more harm than good.
The varying positions of state governors further complicate the issue. While some, like those in Kaduna and Niger States, support dialogue, others, such as the governors of Katsina and Zamfara, oppose it. Both perspectives reflect the complexity of the crisis and the genuine desire for peace. However, dialogue can only be meaningful if bandits are genuinely remorseful and victims and affected communities are actively involved in shaping the process. Without their trust and participation, any peace initiative risks being superficial and unsustainable.
### **Justice and Addressing Root Causes**
Justice must be a cornerstone of any peace process. True reconciliation and reintegration cannot occur without accountability for heinous crimes. Rwanda’s post-genocide reconciliation efforts, which combined local justice mechanisms (Gacaca courts) with international tribunals, offer valuable lessons. Nigeria must ensure that perpetrators are held accountable, creating pathways for healing and reintegration.
Addressing the root causes of banditry and kidnapping is equally critical. Poverty, illiteracy, unemployment, injustice, and inequality fuel these crises. Investing in education, healthcare, infrastructure, the criminal justice system, and economic empowerment is essential to breaking the cycle of violence. Additionally, resolving the contentious issue of open grazing and ranching is necessary to mitigate underlying tensions.
### **A Strategic Path Forward**
While dialogue remains a powerful tool for conflict resolution, its application in the current crisis requires wisdom, caution, and a commitment to justice. Dialogue is not a sign of weakness but a demonstration of collective determination to end violence and restore peace. However, past experiences highlight the risks of negotiating with purely criminal elements.
A more strategic approach would be to further empower the military and security agencies to decisively dismantle criminal networks while addressing the socio-economic root causes of the crisis. Only when perpetrators are genuinely weakened and left with no option but surrender can discussions of dialogue, rehabilitation, and reintegration be considered. Anything less risks emboldening the very elements that have terrorized our communities for over a decade.
The road to peace through dialogue is undoubtedly challenging but viable. With the right strategies and the active participation of all stakeholders, Nigeria can forge a new path toward reconciliation, peace, and sustainable development in the Northwest. Anything short of this risks perpetuating the cycle of violence that has wreaked havoc on our communities for far too long.
**The writer, Sani Kukkasheka Usman mni fnipr, is a retired senior military officer, public relations and security consultant, and advocate for national unity, peace, and security. He actively shares his insights and engages with the public on his Facebook and X platforms via @skusman.**
